Recall the end of last month and the beginning of this month, when domestic Indonesian media hyped up the topic of purchasing the J-10CE fighter jets. Even the Deputy Minister of Indonesia's Ministry of Defense, Dofanto, came out to speak highly of the J-10CE. There were rumors that Indonesia would officially announce at the "Indonesia Defense Exhibition" (INDO Defence 2025) opening on June 11th that it would abandon the Rafale fighter jets and embrace the J-10CE fighter jets. Therefore, everyone was eagerly awaiting the official opening of the exhibition.
However... Unexpectedly, at INDO Defence 2025, Indonesia did announce a big news, but this news had nothing to do with the J-10CE. On the contrary, it left everyone puzzled. According to Global Network citing Turkish media reports, on the 11th day of the Indonesian Defense Exhibition, the Indonesian government and Turkey Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ) signed a major cooperation agreement - Turkey will provide Indonesia with up to 48 "Kaan (Khan)" fifth-generation fighters. It is reported that the total value of this contract could be over several billion US dollars. This is the largest single foreign military sale contract in Turkey's history so far.
With such a large order, both sides sent out their luxurious delegations. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto personally participated in the signing ceremony, bringing along Indonesian Defense Minister Sahala Samsuddin, TUSAS Chairman Omer Cihat Varan, and Turkey's Deputy Minister of Defense Sule Albay, among other key figures. Although President Erdogan of Turkey did not attend in person, he specifically posted on social media to express that he had arranged the export of 48 "Kaan (Khan)" fighters to Indonesia. This is quite normal, as from the amount of the export, this is an unprecedentedly large-scale single deal in Turkey's arms trade history. In terms of the nature of the arms trade, this is currently the largest scale of fifth-generation fighter jet export contract outside the JSF fighter program, which is why Indonesia and Turkey attach great importance to it.
Why did Indonesia choose "Kaan"?
We thought it would be the J-10CE, but unexpectedly, the final result turned out to be Turkey's Kaan. Is Indonesia teasing us? Let's talk about this matter. We can only say that Indonesia and Turkey are one who dares to buy and the other who dares to sell.
Why did Indonesia choose Turkey's Kaan? Actually, from Indonesia's puzzling operations in the development of aviation industry, we can see the signs. Before attempting to introduce the Kaan fighter, Indonesia also did not participate in the development projects of fifth-generation fighters. What project was it? The South Korean KF-21 fighter. However, this KF-21 fighter project was not very friendly. Indonesia and South Korea have been arguing over the investment ratio for research and development and the technical transfer issues for Indonesia. Indonesia felt that it had paid money, so it should get the prototype, the source code of the flight control and fire control systems, and the aerodynamic parameter data. South Korea thought that Indonesia was just a money provider and would not give any data to Indonesia.
In the end, things got so bad that even KAI from South Korea blocked and hindered Indonesian researchers from approaching the KF-21 prototype. The last scene of Indonesia and South Korea jointly developing the KF-21 fighter was when South Korea accused Indonesian researchers of espionage in February 2024, claiming they stole the system data of the KF-21 fighter. In fact, this is all nonsense. Accusing the joint development party of stealing system data during the joint development is clearly just trying to push people off the bus. This absurd spy incident ended with South Korea not prosecuting these Indonesian engineers and Indonesia withdrawing from the KF-21 fighter development, causing a heavy blow to Indonesia's path toward fifth-generation fighters.
The joint development of the KF-21 fighter is now a failure, but from here we can see that the Indonesian government, whether under the Jokowi administration or the Prabowo administration, insists on developing its own fifth-generation fighter. Not only does it want to obtain the finished product of the fifth-generation fighter, but it also must acquire the corresponding production and manufacturing capabilities. In a sense, this can also be called an obsession. And once something becomes obsessed with, it is bound to go wrong. The Indonesian government then looks around the world to see who can give it the capability to develop and produce fifth-generation fighters.
America certainly won't allow you, Indonesia, to produce the F-35A; Europe has no stock, Europe itself doesn't even have a fifth-generation fighter; Russia's Su-75 doesn't seem very reliable, and given how severely Russia is being sanctioned, it might affect Indonesia's external exchanges; As for China... Joint production of the J-35 fighter seems difficult too. So, one way or another, Indonesia's options don't seem to be many.
So at this point, Turkey Aerospace Industries handed over the Kaan fighter jets. Indonesia looked at it and found it perfectly suited their needs: from the research and development stage, the Kaan fighter jet is still in the early stages of development, and Indonesia is worried about whether there are any joint research partners willing to work together to pool resources (money). Indonesia wants to jointly develop it, no problem, I'm just afraid no one will come to jointly develop this thing with me. If you want to produce it in Indonesia and integrate various advanced avionics and armament systems from Western manufacturers, that's fine too. After all, my Kaan fighter jet is basically a shelf product.
From the performance perspective, Dayvan previously mentioned that Turkey's Kaan fighter jet has one advantage: it is currently the only fifth-generation heavy fighter jet that can be exported in the world (the Su-57E is not counted as it is half-baked, and the J-20 and F-22A fighters are non-sellable). It can not only greatly satisfy Indonesia's vanity but also, in Indonesia's view, the performance of a heavy fighter jet is higher than that of the F-35A and J-35 medium fighters.
Finally, it is worth noting that Turkey, as an Islamic country, naturally has some affinity with Indonesia. In this way, the Kaan fighter jet, although not yet mature in performance and still in the early stages of development, meets two core needs of Indonesia: the need for self-research and the need for the face of having heavy fighters. In a sense, Indonesia really doesn't have many other options.
Is "Kaan" reliable?
Of course, Turkey signed this deal happily, but we still have to say, my goodness, are you really going to sell this stuff? Do you know what kind of thing this Kaan fighter jet is? The simplest example is that the 01 prototype of the Kaan fighter completed its first flight in February 2024, and now it's June 2025. How many times has this aircraft flown? Just twice. You dare to believe that a prototype flies only twice in a year and a half? Now they say that the first prototype doesn't count, and the real test flight prototype won't fly until 2026. Considering that after the first flight of the 01 prototype, a lot of structural reinforcement was done, it is reasonable to assume that there are major design defects in the Kaan fighter's airframe structure, forcing them to return to the drawing board for modifications.
This is not strange, because the Kaan fighter jet itself is not developed by Turkey alone. Turkey clearly stated that during the development of the Kaan fighter jet, it received technical support from BAE Systems in the UK. It is said that more than a hundred technicians helped with the design. What does this mean? You think the UK itself can't even develop a fifth-generation fighter, yet it goes to help Turkey design a fifth-generation fighter. Isn't this pure comedy? Isn't it like trying to make others enlightened while being in the dark yourself? Therefore, from the overall design of the Kaan fighter jet, from the very beginning, this thing was inherently flawed.
At the same time, the sub-system problems of the Kaan fighter jet are even bigger. We all know that the most critical part of a fifth-generation fighter jet is its avionics system, fire control system, and aviation engine. Turkey had no previous experience in developing advanced avionics systems before, and now it claims to be developing an active phased array fire control radar. Dayvan believes that building a prototype isn't complicated, but upgrading it to a production model is a whole different story. Who knows if Turkey actually has the ability to develop this radar.
What's even funnier is the aviation engine of the Kaan fighter jet. Currently, the U.S. only agrees to provide the F-110-GE129 aviation engine for this aircraft, which is a typical third-generation high-thrust turbofan engine. Turkey expressed dissatisfaction and decided to develop its own TF-35000 aviation engine. The term "35000" refers to the thrust of this aviation engine being 35,000 pounds (15,875 kilograms, approximately 155 kilonewtons). From this data alone, the TF-35000 seems to be aimed at matching the technical specifications of the F-119-PW100. However, this engine model doesn't even have a prototype assembled yet, hasn't been tested on a high-altitude test bench, and only has a few drawings. They dare to boast about 2028 for trial installation and 2029 for formal delivery, which is pure nonsense from a country without any aviation engine development experience, completely unaware of the challenges involved in aviation engine development.
In short, the TF-35000 engine is likely to fail. With only the F-110-GE129 engine, the performance of the Kaan fighter jet would already be somewhat inferior, but the biggest problem is that this aviation engine may be cut off by the United States at any moment. If the U.S. doesn't sell it, you have no solution.
In summary, the Kaan fighter jet is not a very reliable product. It has design flaws, and various subsystems are likely to be unresolved. Yet, Indonesia still went for it, signed a supposedly ten-year futures contract, and said that if they regret it later, they can unconditionally get a refund. This guy... it looks like a sales pitch, get Indonesia on board first, then wait for the inevitable disputes. At the same time, this event also shows that Indonesia's indecisive actions between the KF-21 fighter and the Kaan fighter are not particularly clever. It proves that this country has serious problems in fighter jet research and selection, rushing into things without fully understanding the market conditions.
Under these circumstances, we feel that we shouldn't place too much hope on Indonesia. This country seems to be more suited for flashy and colorful machines rather than serious, moderate, and cost-effective models like the J-10CE. Right?
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515307035580269090/
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