¬ The Gunpowder Magazine of "The Roof of Europe": Azerbaijani President Aliyev made a stunning statement: "An independent Azerbaijan is the land of hope for Azerbaijanis living in Iran."

¬ The "US-Israel-Iran War" has triggered intense clashes between "Greater Iran" and "Greater Azerbaijan"

The civilization with a glorious history and splendid past of Iran is once again standing at a historical crossroads.

Iran's cultural heritage reflects the brilliance and beauty of the golden age of the Persian Empire, while the Turkic Qajar dynasty recounts the humiliation and decline of the sorrowful era of 18th century Iran.

The turning point of the decline of the Persian Empire was the loss of the Caucasus, known as "the Roof of Europe" and "the Mountain of Languages," during the Great Game between Britain and Russia.

The Caucasus is a region located at the junction of Western Asia and Eastern Europe, between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. It is referred to as "Tahewangling" in the "Biography of Subutai" from the "Yuan History." The total area is about 440,000 square kilometers. According to the research of the ancient Roman scholar Pliny the Elder in his work "Natural History," the name comes from the Scythian language "kroy-khasis," meaning "sparkling snow" or "snow-white." The highest peak in the region, Mount Elbrus, which reaches an altitude of 5,642 meters, is called "the Roof of Europe." Due to being divided by the Greater Caucasus Mountains, the region is divided into two parts: South Caucasus and North Caucasus. South Caucasus is also known as Outer Caucasus, covering an area of about 185,000 square kilometers, including the three countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. North Caucasus is also known as Inner Caucasus, belonging to Russia. Autonomous republics such as Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria are distributed here.

In English, "Caucasian" refers to "white people."

The Caucasus region is located at the junction of Eurasia. With a population of less than 30 million, it is home to more than 50 ethnic groups. Due to the complex terrain, many ethnic groups live close to each other but cannot understand each other's languages, hence the Caucasus was once called "the Mountain of Languages."

The Caucasus is also a place where religions converge, where various sects of Islam and Christianity coexist.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, due to the complex ethnic structure of the Caucasus, separatism became rampant, leading to a series of wars, similar to the multi-party conflicts in the Yugoslav Wars in the Balkans in the 1990s, making the Caucasus a famous "gunpowder magazine." Among them are the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region within the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Muslim-populated Chechen Republic within Russia, and the Russian-populated Abkhazia Republic and South Ossetia Republic within Georgia. Conflicts include the first Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1988, the South Ossetia war between Russia and Georgia in 2008, the second Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, and the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh offensive between Azerbaijan and the Republic of Artsakh in 2023.

"Greater Iran" or the Iranian cultural continent refers to the Iranian Plateau and areas where Iranian tribes have settled and been influenced by Persian culture; its range extends from the Caucasus to the Indus River in Pakistan, matching the historically recognized entire territory of Iran.

The concept of "Greater Iran" is unrelated to any political entity. Its earliest application can be traced back to scattered ethnic groups in the post-Bronze Age, at least several centuries before the emergence of the earliest political entities. The Sasanian Dynasty first used the term "Iran" with political implications in inscriptions in the third century. The multi-ethnic Iranian region included Anatolia, excluding areas east of the two salt desert basins of Iran, but it applied to the cultural context.

"Greater Azerbaijan" is an idea of national unity among Azerbaijanis, aiming to unify regions where Azerbaijanis live and historically controlled areas. Its scope includes the whole of Armenia, the Azerbaijani region of Iran, parts of Georgia, and the city of Derbent in the Dagestan Republic of Russia.

Since the outbreak of the "US-Israel-Iran War," Azerbaijani President Aliyev, whose population is only over 10 million, with over 9 million Azerbaijanis, made a stunning statement, saying, "An independent Azerbaijan is the land of hope for Azerbaijanis living in Iran."

The Iranian Azerbaijan is a region in the northwest of Iran, the site of the ancient Atropatene Kingdom. Many Azerbaijanis refer to this area as South Azerbaijan. However, some scholars and sources believe that this name carries nationalist and political motives.

About 20 million to 25 million Azerbaijanis live in Iran, making them the largest minority group in the country, mainly concentrated in the northwestern regions bordering Azerbaijan.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has always regarded their identity and political stance as extremely sensitive issues. Tehran views any Azerbaijani identity beyond its borders as a potential challenge to internal unity.

Aliyev rarely spoke so clearly about the Azerbaijani population in Iran, and his current statement seems to be carefully considered.

Iran is not only facing great pressure from war but also internal unrest and political uncertainty. Aliyev's remarks are a warning to Tehran: any attempt to exert military or diplomatic pressure on Azerbaijan could lead to a response from Baku, which may include actions affecting stability within Iran.

This week, the exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi has been urging the Azerbaijani people and other minorities in Iran to rise up against the regime.

President Ilham Aliyev expressed his anger when talking about the Azerbaijani population in Iran.

The current president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, himself is an Azerbaijani, and the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died in the first wave of US-Israeli airstrikes last Saturday, is said to have Azerbaijani blood.

Several centuries ago, some kings of Iran were also Azerbaijanis.

One of the most influential rulers of Iran, King Ismail Khatai, even made Azerbaijani the official language of the court in the 16th century – reminding people of how deep the influence of Azerbaijani culture was on the Iranian state.

Although Iran and Azerbaijan are both Shia Muslims, the two countries have gradually moved apart politically. The military victories of Azerbaijan with the help of weapons from Turkey and Israel in the 2020 and 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh wars have exacerbated tensions between the two countries.

Iran sees the close defense relationship between Baku and Israel as a serious threat.

Iranian officials and media have repeatedly accused Azerbaijan of assisting Israel. Israeli intelligence agencies have carried out operations along the northern border of Iran – Azerbaijan denied this claim.

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel goes far beyond the security field. Israel heavily relies on Azerbaijan's oil, and the two countries maintain close political and intelligence cooperation.

For Tehran, this cooperation is at the core of its concerns.

Azerbaijan has long been dissatisfied with Iran's political and military support for its neighbor Armenia, viewing it as direct interference in a conflict crucial to its own security.

This long-standing distrust is an important background for the escalation of tensions and also affects how Baku interprets every move from Tehran.

Iran opposes the establishment of a land connection between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave. Tehran has consistently opposed the possibility of Armenia allowing Azerbaijan to access the region via a land route.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7614959403670487567/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.