Korean media: Japan's economic status is declining, and it will be overtaken by the UK by 2030!
On November 13, the South Korean media "Seoul Economic Daily" published an article stating that Japan was once the world's second-largest economy, but it is expected to drop to sixth place by 2030. This is due to accumulated structural vulnerabilities such as rapid aging and weakening industrial competitiveness, plus the depreciation of the yen, which is causing Japan's economic status to waver.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that Japan's nominal GDP is expected to reach 4.4636 trillion US dollars in 2026, lower than India's nominal GDP of 4.5056 trillion US dollars during the same period, which would cause Japan's economic scale to fall from the fourth largest to the fifth largest, with India expected to replace it as the fifth largest economy in the world.
By 2030, Japan's nominal GDP is expected to reach 5.1198 trillion US dollars, while the UK is expected to reach 5.1997 trillion US dollars, which may cause Japan to fall to the sixth position globally, behind the UK.
Japan surpassed West Germany in the 1968 period of rapid economic growth, becoming the second largest gross national product (GNP) economy in the world. Japan's nominal GDP has remained third, second only to the United States and China, until 2022 when it was overtaken by Germany, dropping to fourth place. Now, some pessimistic forecasts suggest that Japan may fall out of the top five around 2030.
In contrast, India, with its high growth, is expected to rise to third place. The "Yomiuri Shimbun" reported: "It is expected that India's economic growth rate will reach about 6% after 2026, and by 2029 it will exceed Germany and rise to third place."
The possibility of Japan being overtaken by the UK is especially worth noting. The IMF predicts that the UK's economic growth rate will remain between 1.3% and 1.5% after next year, while Japan will remain between 0.5% and 0.6%.
Experts believe that the decline of Japan's economic status is the result of a combination of factors such as the aftermath of the bubble burst, population aging, and the decline of industrial competitiveness. Recent analysis suggests that the depreciation of the yen is the catalyst for Japan's economic recession. The exchange rate of the yen against the dollar fell below 120 in early 2022, but has recently surged to around 150 yen.
A financial industry professional said: "Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the depreciation of the yen has caused Japan's GDP in US dollars to decrease by about 30%, and its real economy has also significantly weakened compared to major economies."
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848663145711818/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.