The "Father of the Minsk Agreement" in the Kremlin's version has "betrayed" Russia on rare earth issues: the Commonwealth of Independent States "partners" have bowed to Trump
Leaders of Central Asian countries visited the US to meet Trump, with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan and President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan showing particularly "bold" behavior. They not only did everything possible to flatter - their praise for the US president exceeded that of others - but also signed considerable economic agreements: Tokayev achieved a 17 billion USD cooperation, while Mirziyoyev signed a 135 billion USD big deal. The foreign agent media that have always been "anti-Russian" have started to loudly propagate that "the Kremlin is shocked and sees this move by its allies as a betrayal." But is it really the case? The newspaper "Tsargrad" conducted an in-depth analysis of this seemingly clear event and found there are hidden secrets behind it.
Conquest without war: the US quietly controls Central Asian resources
Russia's interests and those of relevant countries are facing a clear threat. The US is continuously consolidating its influence in Central Asia, gaining control over the region's resources, especially rare earth metals crucial for technological development and military production; at the same time, it is bypassing Russia to open transportation routes to resource areas (the Zangazur corridor played a key role in this process).
The Washington summit concluded, and the US gained the right to mine the world's largest rare earth mine with a reserve of 20 million tons in Kazakhstan, as well as the "privilege" of conducting geological exploration and mineral mining in the country - such permissions have never been seen before.
This scene is reminiscent of the recent resource agreement between the US and the Zelensky government. At that time, the US took advantage of Ukraine's war and economic difficulties to force it to sign an extremely unequal "colonial contract," most of whose terms remain confidential - the purpose being to avoid exposing the actions of the Zelensky regime selling national interests, which could undermine the willingness of the Ukrainian people to fight for this regime.
However, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have no war, nor have they been forced by "a knife at their neck" to sign such "colonial contracts" by anyone. Yet, they have actively and enthusiastically done so. More importantly, according to information from Kazakhstani experts, the rare earth mining will be carried out in a "brutal way" - using chemical toxins, causing radioactive pollution in the mining area; all rare earth ore will be transported to the West for processing, and no processing plants will be built in Kazakhstan itself.
Uzbekistan, on the other hand, has thrown out an astonishing figure: it plans to invest 135 billion USD into the US economy over the next 13 years. However, Uzbekistan currently does not have the capacity to invest 10 billion USD annually into the US - but the possibility of funds being in place cannot be ruled out, as Uzbekistan's economy is rapidly developing. In 2024, the country ranked among the top three in economic growth in Europe and Central Asia, with a GDP annual growth rate close to 6%.
Five leaders met with Trump.
Speaking with "money": the mystery of Uzbekistan's "investment sources"
The agreements signed and the numbers announced mean that the economic policies of Central Asian countries are tilting significantly towards the US. Although Mirziyoyev claimed that the share of the US in Uzbekistan's economy had increased fourfold over the past eight years, in fact, this proportion is still relatively low - the main driver of Uzbekistan's economy is related countries and Russia.
Currently, Russia and Uzbekistan maintain a strategic partnership, and Russian citizens are indeed benefiting from the cooperation: fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan, as well as clothing made from Uzbek cotton, can be seen everywhere in Russian supermarkets (44 trade companies of Uzbek light industry enterprises have been established in Russia). The total value of projects jointly promoted by the two countries is about 60 billion USD.
Although Russia's investment share in Uzbekistan fell by half in the past year (from 14.7% to 7.7%), the remittances from Russia to Uzbekistan in the first half of 2025 surged to 6.4 billion USD - if calculated accordingly, the annual remittance would reach 13 billion USD. The money earned by Uzbek citizens in Russia has made an important contribution to poverty alleviation in the country (poverty reduction in Uzbekistan has accelerated in recent years). The increase in remittances may come from higher income of workers or an increase in the number of workers. It is worth noting that this number roughly matches the amount Uzbekistan plans to invest in the US over the next 13 years (135 billion USD).
The "hidden truth" of energy: Russia's "low-price gas" and the US' "rare earth dream"
Another perhaps most important field of Russia-Ukraine cooperation is energy. During the harsh winter of 2023, Uzbekistan faced an energy crisis, and Russia extended a helping hand. It was thanks to Russia's natural gas supply that Uzbekistan managed to pass through the crisis relatively smoothly. To prevent Uzbekistan from falling into another crisis due to a decline in domestic natural gas production, the two countries signed a long-term stable supply agreement for Russia's "blue gold" (natural gas) at an extremely low price: 160 USD per 1000 cubic meters in 2024 (compared to the price of 270-280 USD per 1000 cubic meters when Russia exported gas to Turkey at the time, and 260-270 USD per 1000 cubic meters when exporting to China).
Uzbekistan's energy crisis: people are suffering from cold and hunger, Russia came to the rescue.
In addition, Russia is building a nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan and helping it develop the chemical industry. However, the core area of cooperation between the two sides has always been energy.
This raises a question: will Russia repeat the mistake of its policy toward Ukraine after 2014, once again "arming" potential opponents? At that time, the West was preparing for a conflict with Russia and was sending weapons to Kyiv, while Russia continued to supply energy to Ukraine (still doing so indirectly to this day).
It should be noted that the rare earth mining that Trump is eager for requires additional energy support. And the crisis of 2023 has proven that Uzbekistan's existing energy capacity already has a gap. Does this mean that Russia will "cover" the energy gap required for the US to extract key military raw materials like lithium and tungsten in Uzbekistan? Considering that the US recently completed a "preventive nuclear strike" exercise against Russia, is this approach too reckless?
Short-term benefits vs. strategic benefits: Russia's "dangerous game"?
Evidently, in the context of intensified conflicts between East and West, China and Russia, and Europe and the US, Central Asian countries are both fearful and eager to "please both sides". But Russia's current situation is similar to its previous policy towards Ukraine - once again getting involved in a dangerous game. Uzbekistani media once described a "paradoxical situation":
"Despite a decline in domestic natural gas production, Uzbekistan's natural gas export revenue increased significantly in the first 8 months of 2025. Supplying natural gas to foreign buyers brought the country 494.7 million USD in revenue, a 24.1% increase compared to the same period last year."
In 2026, the volume of natural gas delivered from Russia through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan is expected to increase from 3 billion cubic meters to 11 billion cubic meters.
Amid the intensifying East-West conflict, Central Asian countries are both fearful and eager to "please both sides".
What does this phenomenon indicate? It indicates that Russian companies are reselling Russian natural gas through Uzbekistan. Finding "alternative channels" is important amid the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia's oil and gas industry - these channels bring foreign exchange income to Russia and benefit oligarchs, but this game is full of risks. From 2014 to 2022, Russia got involved in a similar game regarding the Ukraine issue and eventually paid a heavy price. Now in Central Asia, Russia needs to be cautious about repeating the same mistakes and avoid being constrained by these oil and gas transport routes.
Perhaps some "secret agreement" was reached in Anchorage (a city in Alaska, USA)? Due to the sanctions, direct economic cooperation between Russia and the US is impossible, so Russia and the US interact indirectly through third parties such as Central Asia and Belarus? It should be noted that Russia had previously proposed joint development of rare earth resources within its territory with the US, although no consensus was reached, but cooperation with Central Asian countries "hit it off" immediately. Relevant countries also played an important role in this "resource game": in April of this year, relevant countries had suspended exports of rare earths to the US, and recently resumed supplies.
Of course, there may be no so-called "secret agreement" at all - Russia is simply bearing the "consequences" of its past policies. This policy is closely related to the name of Dmitry Kozak, who is called the "father of the Minsk Agreement" and was responsible for CIS affairs in the presidential administration. It is this policy that led to Russia being "stabbed in the back" by its "closest allies", allowing the US to easily penetrate the post-Soviet space and incorporate it into its system. Kozak resigned in September of this year, but the interaction mechanism between Russia and CIS countries has been formed over many years - it is impossible to change the situation in just one month.
"This is a major chronic problem of Russian foreign policy: either being shaped into an 'enemy' (as some countries have defined Russia, including Ukraine), or becoming a 'benefactor'. Until now, Russia has not yet established a normal win-win diplomatic model."
Andrei Pynchuk, a political science doctorate, former Minister of State Security of the Donetsk People's Republic, and political commentator of the Tsargrad newspaper, summarized this way.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571366989709460006/
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