[Text/Observer Network Liu Chenghui] The US government's tariff "blows" have left its farmers stunned. With the stagnation of American beef exports to China, Australia has quickly moved in to fill the gap.

Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) mentioned in a report on April 13 that the Sino-US tariff conflict has brought opportunities for Australian beef exports. The demand for Australian grain-fed beef in China has surged, with exports reaching over 20,000 tons in February and March alone, skyrocketing nearly 40% year-on-year. Some meat industry analysts believe that as global trade tensions escalate, Australian meat will fill the market gap, making it clearly a winner in the future.

The report noted that the US beef trade worth $1.6 billion with China has almost come to a standstill, with about 300 slaughterhouses still not having obtained permission to export beef to China, while Australia seems to be filling this gap, benefiting from the surging demand in the Chinese market.

According to American beef traders and the US Meat Export Federation, on March 16, China updated the export registration for hundreds of American pork and poultry processing plants, extending their export qualifications at the last minute so they could continue supplying meat products to China.

However, the qualifications of hundreds of American beef companies expired on March 16 and have yet to be renewed.

"Most American beef products now do not meet the conditions for export to China," the federation expressed concern, "This deadlock has undoubtedly dealt a more severe blow to our beef transactions in March, and this serious impact will continue."

Although a small amount of beef has flowed into China in recent weeks, ABC Rural Channel learned that especially after China announced retaliatory tariffs against the US, trade has completely stopped.

On June 14, 2024, at a fresh food supermarket in Huangpu District, Shanghai, various types of beef sourced from Australia were displayed on the chilled shelves. Visual China

Data from the US Department of Agriculture earlier showed that in the week ending March 20, US beef exports to China were virtually zero, with only 54 tons. Sales volume the previous week was also low, at just 192 tons.

Previously, weekly sales volumes had been close to or exceeded 2,000 tons for four consecutive weeks from mid-February to early March. Traders said the uncertainty regarding export qualifications has cooled business.

China is the third-largest beef export market for the US. According to data released by the US Department of Agriculture, in 2024, the US exported approximately $1.6 billion worth of beef to China.

American beef exporters are anxious, while Australian merchants are delighted.

Statistics from the Australian Meat and Livestock Association (MLA) show that exports of grain-fed beef to China have significantly increased, with shipments totaling 21,885 tons in February and March, an increase of nearly 40% compared to the same period last year.

At the meat processing industry conference held this week in Gold Coast, Andrew Simpson of Bindaree Food Group said that trade conflicts are creating indirect opportunities for Australia.

"If a tit-for-tat situation arises globally, countries like Japan or China raising mutual tariffs may make American beef commercially unfeasible in these regions, while Australian beef will fill this gap, potentially bringing short-term opportunities," Simpson said.

Global meat analyst Brett Stuart optimistically stated that Australia will clearly be a winner in the future.

He said, "Australia is currently the only supplier of high-quality marbled beef to China. (American beef) sales to China have dropped to zero... Not only did it lose market access qualifications on March 16, but叠加 retaliatory tariffs imposed by China have raised the overall tax rate on American beef to 116%, a level that will rapidly terminate trade."

Australian Shadow Trade Minister Kevin Hogan believes that in the long term, the trade war between the two largest economies in the world, the US and China, will hit the demand for Australian export products.

"We are a large exporting country, and we need good global economic growth," he said. "In the short term, this trade dispute may bring opportunities to Australian beef exports, but the bigger question here is that if this tariff war slows down the economic growth of the US and China, then the demand for our products in overseas markets will also be affected."

Since former President Trump signed two executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, the US has continuously increased the tariff rates on Chinese products, triggering multiple retaliatory countermeasures from China.

According to a report by CNN on April 13, the "tariff war" between China and the US is likely to first deal a heavy blow to American farmers, who are precisely Trump's key voter base.

In addition to beef, US soybean exports to China are also being hit, and Brazil is also preparing to take away the "bread" of American farmers.

The Wall Street Journal reported that amid the ongoing global trade conflict, Brazil is betting on some unique advantages. Chinese buyers have begun stockpiling Brazilian soybeans; from cotton to chicken, Brazilian suppliers are also counting on increasing demand from China.

Brazilian investors and businessmen hope Brazil will benefit from the tense global trade situation, as it did during Trump's first term, mainly due to the increase in Chinese demand.

"Due to these trade disputes, China may buy more grains and proteins from Brazil, reducing its demand for American products, thereby boosting Brazil's exports of soybeans, beef, and chicken to China," said Plinio Nastari, head of the Brazilian agricultural consulting company Datagro.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without authorization.

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