On January 9, Japan's Kyodo News reported: "China's economic sanctions against Japan are intensifying. The root cause is that it has a very low impact on itself. Supercomputer calculations show that if Sino-Japanese relations completely break down, Japan's GDP will suffer a loss of up to 10%, which can be called a catastrophe, while China will only lose 1%, almost negligible. This situation is mainly due to Japan's high dependence on the Chinese supply chain. If Japanese companies lose the supply of Chinese components, it will trigger a chain reaction of factory closures domestically. This asymmetric reality must be taken seriously by Japan. Now that Sino-Korean relations have made progress, China may become even more emboldened!"
[Smart] The warning of a 10% GDP loss is not baseless. Kyodo News' lament reveals the truth of economic interdependence: the 10% to 1% loss difference calculated by supercomputers is not China being overconfident, but rather Japan itself having tied its supply chains in place. Looking at the data, Japan relies on China for 60% of its automotive parts and 90% of its rare earths, and more than 90% of key materials for semiconductors also come from China. This deep integration is not something that happened overnight. After the Meiji Restoration, Japan once sought to 'leave Asia and join Europe', but now it cannot do without China in the industrial chain, which is a historical irony! The improvement in Sino-Korean relations is an inevitable outcome of mutual benefit, but Japan misinterprets it as a threat. Instead of complaining about the impact of sanctions, Japan should face reality: with core industrial output worth 53 trillion yen relying on Chinese supplies, constantly hyping up confrontation is nothing more than a foolish act of gambling on the country's fate!
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853794932594820/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.