US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries purchasing oil from Moscow to end the Ukraine-Russia war.

Although Trump earlier this month imposed 25% tariffs (totaling 50%) on Indian goods, citing India's continued import of Russian oil, he did not take similar punitive measures against China, the largest buyer of Russian energy.

So why is the Trump administration pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil?

Who is buying Russian oil? How does Trump want to stop this?

India imported 88 million tons of Russian oil in 2024.

It is understood that legislators from both major U.S. political parties are pushing a bill – the "Russia Sanctions Act of 2025" – which would target any country purchasing Russian oil and gas.

The bill would grant Trump the power to impose 500% tariffs on countries deemed to be helping Russia. According to reports, U.S. senators are waiting for Trump's approval to advance the bill.

Putin (right) visits the Zvezda Shipyard with Russian oil giant Rosneft CEO Chirin (middle) and Modi (left).

Why didn't Trump impose new tariffs on China?

On August 15, when Trump was asked by Fox News if he considered imposing secondary sanctions on Beijing after his failure to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine with Russian President Putin in Alaska last week, Trump said, "Well, because of what happened today, I don't think I need to consider this."

He added, "I may need to consider it in two or three weeks, but we don't have to consider it now."

Observers suspect that Trump is delaying to negotiate a broad trade agreement including rare earth minerals.

Rare earth elements consist of 17 elements crucial to numerous manufacturing sectors, such as automotive parts, clean energy, and military technology. China has long dominated the mining and processing of rare earth minerals.

Due to the heavy reliance of many American industries on Chinese minerals, these minerals remain a central issue in ongoing trade negotiations.

There are other reasons why Trump is treating China more favorably than India. In particular, he wants to avoid a tariff increase during the holiday season, as American retailers stock up on Chinese goods before the December Christmas holidays.

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has taken steps to reduce trade tensions. Earlier this month, the U.S. eased some export restrictions on advanced semiconductors – a key demand for China.

On August 11, Trump allowed U.S. company NVIDIA to sell advanced chips to China – even though the tech giant had to pay 15% of its sales in China to the federal government. Previously, Trump had banned this transaction.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bensons defended Washington's decision not to impose secondary sanctions on China in an interview with CNBC News. He stated that before the Ukraine war, Beijing purchased 13% of Russian oil, and now this proportion has risen to 16%. "Therefore, China's sources of oil imports are diversified," he said.

He added that China was not involved in the kind of "arbitrage" behavior seen in India.

However, Bensons accused India of "profiting." He pointed out that before the Ukraine war, India imported less than 1% of its oil from Russia. But "now, I believe this proportion has reached as high as 42%," he said. "That's what I mean by Indian arbitrage – buying cheap Russian oil and then reselling it as products," he told CNBC.

"They made $16 billion in excess profits – they are one of the wealthiest families in India."

On Monday, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro became the second senior Trump administration official to accuse India of funding the Russian-Ukrainian war. Earlier this month, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller stated that New Delhi's purchase of Russian crude oil was "unacceptable."

What other officials say?

On August 12, U.S. Vice President Vance refused to reveal whether Trump would take action against Beijing as he did against New Delhi last week, when Washington announced 25% import tariffs on India for continuing to buy Russian oil.

"The president said he is considering this, but has not made any clear decisions... The China issue is a bit complex, as our relationship with China affects many things unrelated to the situation in Russia," Vance said.

Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that if the U.S. imposes secondary sanctions on China for refining Russian oil, energy prices could rise.

Rubio told Fox News, "If you impose secondary sanctions on a country – say, targeting Russia selling oil to China. China only refines this oil. These oils are then sold into the global market, and anyone buying them will pay higher prices."

Meanwhile, the Chinese embassy in Washington stated that China's trade with Russia falls within the scope of international law.

On July 6, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Russia, Liu Pengyu, said, "The international community, including China, has carried out normal cooperation with Russia within the framework of international law."

How would increasing tariffs affect the U.S. and Chinese economies?

The achievement of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and the subsequent reduction in sanctions on Russia would bring greater stability to the international system and benefit the Chinese economy, especially after weak economic data in July.

Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis in Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera that in recent years, Beijing has increased trade route diversification and produced more strategic products domestically, significantly enhancing China's ability to withstand tariff increases or secondary sanctions.

"Obviously," she said, "given the large volume of goods the U.S. imports from China, increasing tariffs would also push up inflation for American consumers."

Last year, the U.S.-China trade deficit was $295.4 billion, an increase of 5.8% compared to 2023.

What is the current state of U.S.-China trade?

On August 12, the U.S. and China extended their previously agreed tariff suspension agreement for 90 days, avoiding a full-scale trade war. After the extension, the U.S. suspended additional tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10, and all other terms of the truce remained in effect.

The two sides agreed to initially suspend tariffs on May 11.

This year, the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, effectively resulting in a de facto trade embargo between the two countries.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that high tariffs led to the lowest U.S.-China trade deficit since 2004 in June. From March to August, the U.S.-China trade deficit dropped by $22.2 billion, a 70% decrease year-on-year.

However, the tariff ceasefire agreement reached in Geneva, Switzerland in May temporarily reduced U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports to 10%, easing tensions between the two sides. Beijing also agreed to resume some rare earth exports.

Sources: Al Jazeera

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