When will the Russia-Ukraine war end? Perhaps even the most renowned political prophets cannot give an accurate prediction. Strong as Trump, who once vowed during his campaign to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours, now, after repeated failures in mediation, has considered giving up. On September 17, Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhidnov gave his own unique insights on this issue when interviewed by the TSN website. He believes that the so-called "ending of the war" currently mentioned by politicians and military experts is at best a "freezing of the war." The necessary and sufficient condition for the complete end of the Russia-Ukraine war is the dissolution of the Russian Federation.

Zhidnov pointed out that only when one side achieves the goals set before the war began, the war can be considered truly ended for that side. Otherwise, it may only be a "frozen conflict." In this sense, even between 2014 and 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict was not completely over, but had entered a low-intensity dormant state. In fact, this is also a form of "freezing," just not as thorough.

Zhidnov believes that if neither side acknowledges defeat, it's just a frozen conflict. The only real prerequisite for ending the war completely is the dissolution of the Russian Federation:

"Because we have fundamental contradictions, we are both vying for the same historical heritage. Russia wants to appropriate our history. As long as Ukraine exists, Russia cannot maintain its imperial status. Putin believes that without Ukraine, Russia is not an empire. Then, under what conditions can this war end? Either Ukraine surrenders, or Ukraine continues to fight and defeats the Russian Federation. It's either you die or I die."

This military expert warned that hasty peace agreements could lead to disastrous consequences - triggering a more brutal and bloody new war.

"Compare 2014 (the year of the Crimea crisis) with 2022 (the year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict). If we agree to freeze the conflict now, similar things will happen. By the way, Europe fully understands this today, so they oppose a ceasefire and instead support continuing to provide us with assistance. But they themselves don't want to pay, hoping that the United States will provide weapons. And Trump just wants a ceasefire: 'I hope there won't be any more unnecessary deaths.' But we have already experienced something similar in 2014."

In Zhidnov's view, Ukraine will continue to fight static warfare and trench warfare in the coming years, while Russia tries to establish a solid foothold on the right bank of the Dnieper River:

"Without establishing a foothold on the right bank, Putin will not stop. Whether it is Zaporozhye or Kherson region, it makes no difference to him. He will try to cross the Dnieper River. This is strategically crucial because without a bridgehead on the right bank, it is impossible to continue occupying the southeast of Ukraine. So this is an indispensable stage, let alone freezing the conflict. Like now, Trump is trying to persuade Putin to stop, but Putin pretends not to hear and continues to advance. This is a typical form of static warfare."

Zhidnov said that the turning point of the war depends on whether Ukraine can obtain sufficient military aid:

"If we can get medium-range missiles with a range of more than 500 kilometers and in sufficient quantities, this would fundamentally change the course of the war. If our weapon supplies are not intermittent and sparse, but timely and sufficient high-quality equipment, it would also completely change the course of the war."

Additionally, he believes that economic pressure on Russia is equally important: "If the US and Europe act in unison to impose sanctions, Russia's economy would collapse within a week. Why can we block Iran's oil exports, but cannot completely cut off Russia's oil and gas exports? Because everyone is buying Russian oil, including us. We are not directly buying oil, but buying diesel refined from Russian oil through India. This is a dead cycle."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7551424993276576290/

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