Media: Will the US allow China to surpass it economically?

The world is waiting for the outcome of the Sino-US economic conflict. China's GDP ranks second in the world, just behind the United States. Some people believe that China's economic surpassing of the US is just a matter of time.

China's leadership in the BRICS countries and the increasing importance of the organization in recent years have brought hope that an economic power capable of matching the US may emerge. Some even believe that the current economic power structure is heading towards collapse, and a multipolar global economic system will replace the current US-dominated system.

In recent years, there have been open conflicts between China and the US in the economic field, mainly in trade and technology.

It is necessary to study some published economic indicators, which can show which side has the greatest economic strength, so that we can form a vision not based on emotion.

GDP Value

Data from the World Bank database indicates several things, including:

In 2021, the gap between China and the US GDP narrowed to $5.4 trillion.

From 2022 to 2024, the gap widened significantly to $7.6 trillion, then to $9.4 trillion, and then to $10.4 trillion, showing the US economic advantage over China in these years. This progress stems from superior economic fundamentals, allowing the US to lead the world economy.

The US GDP will grow from $23.6 trillion in 2021 to $29.1 trillion in 2024, while China's GDP remains between $18.2 trillion and $18.7 trillion.

Since 2020, China has been negatively affected by the COVID-19 crisis, domestic debt crisis, and the decline of small and medium-sized enterprises. The US has also suffered from inflation, rising unemployment, depreciation of the dollar, and worsening public debt crises.

Data from the database shows that the slowdown in global economic growth and the ongoing challenges facing the global economy - such as inflation, the Ukraine-Russia war, and Middle East conflicts - have had a clear impact on the economies of the US, China, and other countries around the world.

Technology Competition

Technology is one of the most important tools in the Sino-US conflict, evident in many areas, most notably weapons, medicine, communications, and transportation.

The index used to measure and pay attention to this competition is the percentage of R&D expenditure to GDP.

By reviewing data from this indicator over the past five years (from 2018 to 2022), it becomes clear that:

When we examine the R&D expenditures of the US and China, we find that the US leads China in both the percentage of expenditure to GDP and the amount of expenditure (in billions of dollars).

Looking at the amount of expenditure, from 2018 to 2022, the US spent twice as much on R&D as China, which is advantageous for the US in terms of technological gaps. This was reflected in the recent tariff agreement between the two countries. China agreed to increase tariffs on products exported to the US by about 30% before Trump returns to the White House, in exchange for the US lifting restrictions on exports of advanced technologies.

The proportion of R&D expenditure to GDP is higher in the US than in China. In 2018, the US accounted for 2.99% of GDP, while China was 2.14%. During this period, this difference was always favorable to the US. In 2022, the US GDP growth rate was 3.59%, while China's growth rate was 2.5%, indicating that the value of the US GDP has increased relative to China.

Although the US may have higher R&D expenditures due to its generally higher standard of living and income levels, we must consider that the US still holds an advantage in technology in areas such as weapons, medicine, communication, and transportation.

China is trying to narrow the technological gap and position the US as a relative advantage rather than a competitive advantage. However, because the US has been widely open to the world for many years, attracting scientific researchers and outstanding talents, compared to China, which started later, the US has established an advantage and consolidated its position.

Per Capita National Income Share

Using this indicator requires considering the significant differences in the populations of the two countries. China has a population of 1.4 billion, while the US has a population of 340 million. This means that China's population is more than three times that of the US. However, the latter's national income is generally higher than that of China.

Assuming that the populations of the US and China are equal, the US per capita income would be better than China's, because the US's national income is higher than China's.

People may wonder why this indicator is used. The fact is that this comparison is fair, because both countries rely on production and technology to create national income, not on income sources from interest. Therefore, this comparison has its scientific and enlightening significance.

The gap in per capita income between the US and China is large. Considering that China reached the world average only in 2022, the gap between the US and China is about six times that of China.

Finally, money and power have always been fields of competition among nations throughout history. It is hard to imagine that the US would accept China's economic progress or political and military strength being equal to its own. Anyone who pays attention to the statements of former US President Donald Trump would clearly notice this.

Both countries are striving for further development and aiming to dominate the global stage with their economic, political, and military strength. For the foreseeable future, the US seeks to maintain its progress while hindering China's progress, which is Beijing's goal.

Source: Al Jazeera

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838638279566347/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.