Military history has repeatedly seen the script of top predators being eliminated by new technologies. Many ultimate weapons that once dominated the battlefield have been weakened or even eliminated in the tide of technological progress. Two years ago, Rear Admiral Jonathan Mead of the Australian Navy had once excitedly stated that Australia's future nuclear submarine fleet would be "the top predator of the ocean," combining "speed, stealth, and firepower." However, with a series of breakthroughs in China's underwater warfare technologies, the validity of this title is now under a huge question mark. The "AUKUS" nuclear submarine plan, which Australia has invested heavily in, is now facing serious doubts about possibly becoming a "submerged iron coffin"!

Perhaps the AUKUS alliance is losing value

According to The Guardian in the UK, in recent years, China has made many breakthroughs in underwater detection. Scientists have published many black technology theories and techniques that can detect the traces of submarines. Among these, the most impressive is the quantum sensing system capable of accurately tracking submarines. Once these technologies are fully implemented in the future, submarines hidden beneath the ocean will be unable to remain undetected. In this context, the strategic significance of Australia's costly investment in the AUKUS alliance is greatly reduced.

As is well known, the greatest advantage of submarines lies in using the vast ocean as cover, then moving silently beneath the ocean with advanced quieting technology. In wartime, submarines can strike opponents unexpectedly, while in peacetime, they can effectively deter opponents. However, if the underwater stealth technology of submarines is compromised, their tracks will be constantly monitored. After seeing China's many technological breakthroughs, the outside world has begun to doubt whether the 36.8 billion Australian dollars Australia has invested to obtain American nuclear submarines may be a gamble.

Australian military expert Grisogono warned: "The possibility of the ocean becoming transparent at some point is basically 100%. The only issue is the time frame. The rapid development of artificial intelligence is becoming an 'accelerator' for all detection technologies. According to her observations, the future underwater battlefield will feature a defense system composed of a network of 'low-cost, disposable, and distributed underwater sensors.' Even if many nodes are lost, the entire underwater defense network can still function. More importantly, these defense systems are very cheap and can provide an 'asymmetric' advantage against expensive nuclear submarines. She is now questioning whether the logic behind the AUKUS plan still holds today."

This underwater technology competition is two-way. As China accelerates its underwater detection efforts, submarine designers are also working to develop counter-detection measures, making submarines more隐蔽. These technologies include sound-absorbing tiles to absorb or confuse sonar, cooling systems to weaken thermal imaging or infrared detection, "demagnetization" procedures to reduce magnetic signatures, and pump-jet propulsion to reduce wake trails.

The current underwater competition is very intense, far exceeding what people imagine

Therefore, Rear Admiral Mark Hammond of the Australian Navy remains confident about nuclear submarines. He said, "Since I obtained my submarine operation qualification 31 years ago, I've kept hearing about the 'ocean transparency' concept, but the situation hasn't really changed. Every advancement in detection capability is usually offset by counter-detection capabilities and better stealth technology."

Hammond further explained with a metaphor: "Land and air have already become completely transparent battlefields, but no one has stopped building tanks and airplanes. The underwater battlefield will continue to become more crowded and competitive, but it will ultimately remain the least transparent environment on Earth. I believe our allies will continue to maintain their capability advantages in this field."

Regarding Australians' confidence, American strategist Professor Singer reminded: "The speed of technological change makes long-term predictions extremely difficult. The AUKUS submarine plan spans several decades, with the first self-built nuclear submarine expected to be launched in the 40s of this century, and construction work is expected to continue until the 60s of this century."

For technology, 20 years is a very long time. From the breakthroughs China has achieved, a worrying trend is that the observability of the battlefield is increasing. The past stealth systems are becoming easier to detect, and once they can be detected, they can be destroyed. By the time Australia's first nuclear submarine is in place, the technological breakthroughs at that time might make them unable to be excited.

When Australians get their submarines, they may face new underwater situations again

In the end, Professor Singer believes everything points to a core issue: How much investment does Australia really want to make in the AUKUS alliance?

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550134352094315034/

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