Korean Media: War Initiated by the U.S. Triggers Global Economic Woes… Yet America Remains Unscathed

On the 27th, according to The New York Times (NYT), the war initiated by the United States against Iran is plunging the global economy into turmoil. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy—despite being a direct party to the conflict—has hardly been affected. As the war enters its second month, warnings of stagflation (economic recession accompanied by rising prices) are sounding worldwide, while the United States continues to maintain robust growth and low unemployment rates.

The aftermath of the war is severely damaging the real economies of Asia and Europe. Textile factories in India and Bangladesh are facing collapse, aviation fuel prices in Europe have doubled, and German airline Lufthansa has announced the cancellation of 20,000 summer flights this year. All of the world’s top 20 airlines are cutting back on flight schedules. Surging oil prices are placing unbearable pressure on Asian nations such as South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand, leading to energy shortages and even discussions about rationing systems.

Especially for low-income countries and civilians, suffering has reached its breaking point. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned: “A food crisis is rapidly approaching.” In the Asia-Pacific region, millions face the risk of falling into poverty.

Global supply chains have also come to a standstill. The Strait of Hormuz—the core transportation artery for global oil and natural gas—has been blocked. Critical raw materials like naphtha, aluminum, and helium, as well as daily necessities such as chips and contraceptives, are experiencing cascading shortages, much like falling dominoes. Even wealthy nations with massive sovereign funds—such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which holds over $2 trillion (approximately 295 trillion KRW)—are now struggling due to damaged gas fields and disrupted logistics, forcing them to seek financial assistance from the United States.

In contrast, the U.S. domestic economy remains remarkably stable—almost unnaturally so. Since the outbreak of war, gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by approximately 30% per gallon, exceeding a $1 increase, placing some burden on low-income households. Although major Wall Street banks have raised their inflation forecasts, compared to the chaos experienced by other nations, the impact remains negligible. Economists suggest that if international oil prices surge to $150 per barrel, the U.S. might begin to worry about economic recession.

The reason the U.S. can remain “unscathed” lies in its strong energy self-sufficiency. The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas, with production far exceeding domestic consumption, enabling it to withstand global energy shocks independently. Additionally, its economic structure is primarily service-oriented rather than heavily reliant on energy-intensive manufacturing, shielding it from the impacts of high oil prices.

However, how long the U.S. can sustain this “self-preservation” remains uncertain. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), stated: “The U.S. is not currently suffering, but blind confidence would be dangerous.” He warned that Donald Trump’s administration, following a ‘America First’ policy, unilaterally initiating war while making allies bear massive economic consequences, is a deadly poison to America’s global hegemony and diplomatic credibility.

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863712457791556/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.