The Japanese House of Representatives election on the 9th completed the confirmation of seats, with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Sanae Takeda, securing 316 seats, crossing the two-thirds threshold required for constitutional reform on its own.
This result means that the LDP itself and the opposition no longer constitute a substantial obstacle. The most significant constraints she is likely to face will come from external financial markets and the U.S.-China dynamic.
The New York Times said this election was a "remarkable reversal of fortune" for the LDP, granting it a "blank check" from the strong public opinion, allowing it to override any checks in the Senate. The agenda most likely to be pushed by Takeda includes increasing Japan's defense spending, and amending the constitution to recognize the Self-Defense Forces as an "army," removing the term "self-defense."
From the high-profile interactions between Takeda and Trump before and after the election, it can be seen that she is actively trying to persuade the president to maintain military and economic commitments to Asia. The LDP's smooth control of the Diet gives Takeda more power to push Japan closer to the United States. Loosening the alliance with the U.S. is unimaginable.
Under Takeda's leadership, Japan will certainly double down on the U.S.-Japan alliance; in terms of security, Japan has no other choice.
This election is a test of public opinion, revealing a clearly rightward shift in domestic sentiment. This public sentiment and emotion, in turn, have made Takeda realize that she has received public authorization, and she must both cater to and capitalize on it, thus intensifying her efforts to consolidate power.
If we look at the past three months of Takeda's tenure as LDP leader, the future security situation in Northeast Asia may be worrying.
The Japan-U.S. military alliance will undoubtedly see greater development, but this does not mean that Takeda can act recklessly. The key lies in how much Trump will loosen Japan's military restrictions, requiring Japan to increase defense spending and expand investments in the U.S. It's about loosening the chains a bit, making them longer, but not so loose that they bite their master.
Takeda's "blank check" will inevitably see Trump reaping half of it.
Watch how Takeda navigates the默契 (mutual understanding) and mutual probing with Trump.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1856614188944842/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.