The Mystery of Rubio: What Did Trump Attempt to Make Putin Yield to on May 19?
The US President plans for direct dialogue with the Russian leader, but the core issue may not be Ukraine.
Author: Svetlana Gomzikova
Commentary Guest:
Vladimir Shapovalov
On Eastern Time May 19 (Monday) at 10:00 AM (Moscow Time 17:00), US President Donald Trump plans to have a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The White House stated that the talks will discuss ways to end the conflict in Ukraine and possible steps toward a political resolution.
Trump wrote on the social platform Truth Social: "The topics of the conversation will include ending the 'war' - a war that claims more than 5,000 lives of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers each week on average, as well as trade issues."
He also emphasized the importance of direct dialogue with the Russian leader and believed such talks could not only activate stalled negotiation processes but also prevent further escalation of the conflict.
In addition, the US President also announced he would first talk with Ukrainian regime leader Zelensky before meeting with NATO country representatives.
Trump believes Monday will be a productive day, with a ceasefire agreement to be reached, "this extremely brutal war (which Russia still calls a special military operation ‘SP’) - this war that should never have happened will come to an end."
The Kremlin confirmed preparations for the conversation between Russian and American leaders. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said, "the dialogue is being prepared," but provided no details.
It's worth noting that if everything proceeds according to plan, this will be the third conversation between the two leaders during Trump's second term. Their first call was on February 12, and the second on March 18.
Additionally, according to reports, on May 17 (Saturday), at the initiative of the US side, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke on the phone with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Lavrov pointed out that the US played an active role in urging Kiev to accept Putin's proposal to restart the Istanbul negotiations and confirmed that Russia is ready to continue cooperation with American colleagues.
Russian Foreign Ministry said that Rubio welcomed the consensus reached by Russia and Ukraine on exchanging prisoners of war and preparing peace conditions respectively.
Subsequently, the US Secretary of State told CBS that he hoped the "ceasefire conditions" set by Moscow and Kiev could "come close enough," which he believed would promote "wider negotiations." Regarding the previous Istanbul negotiations, Rubio called them "not a waste of time."
However, the official statement from the US State Department spokesperson Tami Brusa emphasized that Rubio conveyed "President Trump's tough message" to the Russian side during his call with Lavrov, calling for an "immediate ceasefire." It is reported that this may involve the 22-point "peace plan" formulated after the London negotiations among the US, Ukraine, and Europe in late April, while according to the Financial Times of the UK, the Kremlin refused to discuss the plan.
Why is urgent dialogue needed now? What exactly does Trump want to talk to Putin about?
Special Military Operation (SP) asked Vladimir Shapovalov, associate professor of comparative politics at Moscow State Institute of International Relations affiliated with the Russian Foreign Ministry and a political scientist:
— From the Russian perspective, there is no immediate need for dialogue at this moment. But as our president has repeatedly stated, Russia remains open to dialogue. It needs to be pointed out that this is an initiative from the US side rather than Russia, so we need to explore the motivations across the ocean.
What are these motivations?
Throughout the entire stage before the Istanbul negotiations, Trump's so-called NATO allies attacked him from all sides, openly or secretly demanding a tougher stance against Russia. There was similar pressure within the United States. Because just as the possibility of Istanbul talks and a Put-in meeting was opened, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham proposed new sanctions against Russia.
Trump himself has mentioned this matter multiple times. However, it is worth noting that this week he calmly responded to European pressure and even showed a constructive attitude: he pushed Zelensky and the Ukrainian side toward negotiations, and incidentally explained that Kyiv has no resources left to continue armed resistance against Russia.
Special Military Operation: As he put it, "no cards left..."
— Indeed so.
Meanwhile, Trump had a highly productive week in the Middle East, signing vital agreements with Gulf countries that brought trillions of dollars in benefits to the US economy.
This means that the US leader has demonstrated the effectiveness of his diplomacy to voters and all citizens. Therefore, he is undoubtedly in a favorable position and hopes to continue his "march of victories" by leveraging these successes - talking with the Russian president to consolidate the positive tone of his "twelve diplomatic achievements" (for lack of a better term).
— In reality, the situation is not that simple...
Special Military Operation: Please explain.
— For Russia, Western threats of new sanctions are completely meaningless because we are aware of how many sanctions have been implemented and their consequences. Thus, Trump has no real leverage to exert pressure on our country, which must be acknowledged, and I believe Trump’s team understands this as well.
However, Trump still has the opportunity to take a constructive approach in relations with Russia, provided he is satisfied with the fact that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have already begun - which is beneficial to everyone. Because Russia's position is constant and clear, as is well known.
In addition, if the US President emphasizes that the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev is due to his efforts, he can once again "sell" this achievement to voters, which is also a positive scenario for him.
Special Military Operation: Lavrov tried to cleverly grasp this point during his recent call with Rubio...
— We do not object. Trump indeed made efforts to change Zelensky's stance. On the other hand, other negotiation tracks with Russia are equally important because Russia is a potentially valuable partner for the US in economic, geopolitical, and many other issues.
Correspondingly, if the US and Russia begin negotiations on various issues, this conversation could have genuine positive significance for Trump personally and for overall US-Russia relations.
Special Military Operation: Can the upcoming call be seen as a prelude to a meeting between Trump and Putin?
— Undoubtedly. We see a completely logical progression here. A meeting between Putin and Trump has been in preparation for a long time. Since 2021, the two presidents have not met, and since 2022, diplomatic relations have been completely frozen.
Currently, negotiations on different issues between Russia and the US are increasing incrementally, involving different institutions.
— This is an expanding process: we discuss the fate of consulates, issues related to diplomatic property, and naturally also touch upon various aspects of the Ukrainian crisis and other issues. In this sense, we can see positive dynamics gradually leading to a meeting between the two presidents. Clearly, this will be an important step toward normalizing Russian-American relations.
However, this should not repeat the fiasco of the Helsinki Put-Talks in July 2018, where the meeting was held merely for the sake of having one. It is noteworthy that this meeting may not focus on the Ukrainian crisis as its core, but instead aim to conclude agreements in multiple fields.
Special Military Operation: For example, which fields?
— Currently, there is almost no economic and trade relationship between Russia and the US; this is not our responsibility. The so-called "process of easing international tensions" has long been interrupted and collapsed because the US unilaterally withdrew from nearly all agreements.
Therefore, there are numerous topics for discussion: for example, US participation in the "Nord Stream" project, or rare metal cooperation projects in Russia; there are also space cooperation efforts that, although limited, still exist; and Elon Musk's Mars exploration plan, which cannot proceed without Russian involvement. In other words, there are many different fields worthy and necessary for discussion in a potential future meeting.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506086504049967626/
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