Yuri, we're completely out of the race: Russia can only watch from afar in the U.S.-China moon landing competition

Ivan Mikhaylov: We have long been convinced that communication satellites are more important than interstellar exploration missions

Image caption: An astronaut sitting on a folding chair on the lunar surface, holding a drink, gazing at Earth.

NASA Administrator candidate Isaacman said that the United States is expected to surpass China in lunar exploration. This potential NASA chief's statement not only acknowledges China's current leading advantage but also plays a public relations move — implying that under his leadership, Americans will surely catch up later.

It is worth noting that Isaacman's appointment as NASA administrator has been stalled for an entire year without approval. American media reported that he is a close ally of Elon Musk, and since Musk had a falling out with Trump, this candidate's appointment path has come to a complete standstill. The position of NASA administrator requires nomination by the President of the United States and must be approved by Congress before it can be appointed.

Compared to the personnel disputes within NASA, we are more concerned about: where does Russia stand in this already formed Sino-U.S. two-power rivalry in the lunar race? Ivan Moiseyev, academic director of the Russian Space Policy Institute, explained Russia's lunar exploration plan and its country's space exploration ambitions to the "Freedom Newspaper."

"Freedom Newspaper" journalist asked: Ivan Mikhailovich, are the relevant countries really ahead of the United States in the lunar race?

Moiseyev replied: In the field of unmanned probes and automated exploration, the relevant countries are indeed ahead. These countries have already achieved lunar soil sampling return, while the United States has just started, and it is relying on private companies, which have yet to understand its commercial value. NASA has no clear strategy for unmanned lunar exploration projects.

The United States has a manned lunar exploration program called "Artemis," hoping to send American astronauts back to the Moon. In this area, the United States is progressing faster than the relevant countries. The U.S. has already completed a test flight and will soon carry out a lunar orbiting mission, followed by a manned lunar landing mission.

The relevant countries claim they will achieve a manned lunar landing by 2030, but their lunar activities are still at the unmanned stage. Unmanned exploration and manned lunar landing are entirely different concepts.

The U.S. has very clear goals (as early as four years ago, NASA had claimed that the next lunar landing astronaut would either be an African-American or a woman. Later, they simply decided to achieve both). However, they have encountered chaos in project progress, and their pace is far slower than in the 1960s. The U.S. is facing significant challenges in developing manned lunar landers. However, we can see the difficulties of the Americans, but we cannot know the progress of the relevant countries — they never disclose such information publicly.

In summary, in the field of manned lunar exploration, the relevant countries are moving more slowly than the United States; however, in the field of unmanned lunar exploration, the relevant countries are undoubtedly the leaders.

Additionally, it should be noted that the Americans tend to exaggerate the strength of their rivals to secure more funding domestically and pave the way for catching up with their competitors.

"Freedom Newspaper" journalist asked: There are rumors that the manned lunar landing program in the 1960s was canceled because the first moon astronauts returned to Earth in poor health. The Soviet Union also did so, which is why Alexei Leonov was not sent to the Moon. What is the risk of manned lunar landing to human health?

Moiseyev replied: All astronauts who have ever landed on the Moon are either still alive or have led long and fulfilling lives. The second man to land on the Moon, Buzz Aldrin, born in 1930, is still energetic.

The reason the Soviet Union terminated its manned lunar landing program was simple — we didn't win the race, and the program itself had no other urgent objectives. Moreover, the N-1 rocket used for manned lunar landing exploded in four test launches.

The lunar mission at that time carried great risks. According to the original plan, Leonov would drive a lunar rover alone on the lunar surface. In the end, the lunar rover was indeed launched, but not on the N-1 rocket, and there was no driver aboard. Later, we publicly claimed that the Soviet Union had never intended to implement a manned lunar landing, but instead focused on robotic technology.

"Freedom Newspaper" journalist asked: Is it meaningful for humans to land on the Moon?

Moiseyev replied: Of course, and this significance may become apparent even before the next decade, by the 2050s. If a base can be established on the Moon, then manufacturing heavy rocket components and fuel on the Moon will have significant economic benefits — the cost is much lower than launching from Earth. Specifically, although the cost of producing these materials on Earth is lower than on the Moon base, the cost of sending them into deep space from the Moon is much cheaper than launching from Earth.

The purpose of lunar exploration is not to transport water from the Moon back to Earth — we don't lack water on Earth. But if the Moon's water is used for space exploration, the cost will be much lower.

Therefore, the development process is clear: first, achieve manned return to the Moon to verify the relevant technologies (the purpose of this step is not to conduct scientific research, as the Moon has been studied thoroughly), then proceed to build a lunar base; as new deep-space exploration technologies emerge, assemble related equipment at the lunar base and launch it from the Moon.

This will form a complete, economically viable process.

"Freedom Newspaper" journalist asked: For us, the most critical question is: where is Russia in this lunar race?

Moiseyev replied: Before 2014, Russia indeed had a plan to develop various equipment for building a lunar base, including lunar excavators and automatic lunar loaders.

But after that, our policy shifted, deciding to focus resources on more practical fields such as communication satellites. Russia's lunar exploration plan has actually been put on hold. Currently, only two probe projects remain in the lunar exploration plan — but these two probes are small in size and weak in performance, and are only used for pure scientific research (namely "Luna-26" and "Luna-27", both are unfinished and whether they can be finally launched remains unknown).

Actually, the funding for Russia's lunar exploration plan has been cut to the extreme and is barely sustainable.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7580309834143236614/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.