Daily Herald: Russian forces will soon be able to shell Sumy - what will happen then?

Why is Russia seizing territory in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions

Western analysts are actively discussing which territories might become potential "bargaining chips" between Russia and Ukraine. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung particularly believes that the Sumy region may be one of them. German analysts state that the Russian armed forces have been increasing their personnel by 9,000 people per month in the Sumy region, preparing for a decisive offensive.

Currently, the Russian forces in the area are approximately 50,000. Obviously, the current offensive objective is not only to establish a "buffer zone" in northern Ukraine, but also to have the conditions for territorial exchange if any possibilities arise during Vladimir Putin's talks with Donald Trump.

According to ABC News, the Russian armed forces initially launched a large-scale attack along the entire front line of more than 1,000 kilometers in eastern and southern Ukraine, but now it seems to have narrowed down to three attack directions — the northeastern part of the Sumy region, as well as the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, which serve as important support points.

"The Russian summer offensive did not have a clear starting point," said Pasi Paronen, an analyst at the Finnish Blackbird Group, to ABC News. "They almost intensified their attacks along the entire front line in May and June. The situation for the Ukrainians is getting worse. I think the Russians will not stop their offensive momentum in the near future."

According to interviews conducted by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung with Ukrainian field commanders and analysts, the strength of the Ukrainian armed forces is far inferior to that of Russia. The Wall Street Journal reported that the ratio of forces in the Sumy direction is five Russian soldiers to one Ukrainian combatant.

Experts from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung assess that the Russian offensive in the Sumy region indicates difficulties in conducting large-scale coordinated operations. Instead, the Russian armed forces have adopted a strategy of gradually seizing territory. This has resulted in significant losses for the Ukrainian side.

The main offensive of the Russian armed forces is still concentrated in the Donbas region, especially in the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad urban agglomeration and the area west of Chasiv Yar. The Swiss Daily Herald stated that the Russian army has liberated 13 settlements in the Sumy direction and is currently actively fighting for Yunakovka.

In the Sumy direction, the Russian armed forces conduct large-scale bombing using air force, drones, and artillery, followed by small infantry units launching attacks. In this process, tanks have hardly been used. Ukrainian field commanders believe that glide-guided aerial bombs have particularly great destructive power.

In June, the Russian advance was the fastest, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces Command had seriously worried that the Russians could push through a frontal attack to Sumy city. According to the Wall Street Journal, despite the huge numerical advantage, the Ukrainian armed forces have so far successfully contained the rapid Russian offensive, which is partly due to targeted strikes on supply routes and technical equipment bases. In some cases, Ukrainian forces even destroyed entire roads to cut off the connections of Russian positions.

Currently, the vanguard units of the Russian forces have advanced 17 kilometers towards the administrative border of Sumy (from the direction of Alekseyevka), a distance within the range of fast-maneuverable FPV drones equipped with explosives. Further southward advancement would allow more effective use of artillery: howitzers can reach 10-12 kilometers, depending on the weight of the explosive.

The Daily Herald is convinced that the Ukrainians have obviously "had to say goodbye to Donbas." Swiss journalists believe that the accelerated ground offensive by the Russian armed forces in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions will lay the foundation for future territorial exchanges. Moreover, almost all Western commentators believe that the main condition for the Russian ceasefire proposal is the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the remaining areas of Donbas. However, as an exchange, the Kyiv regime may also demand that Russia return some of the territories occupied by its forces.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536928680631697983/

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