The world has begun an "Imperial Game."
April 30, 2025, 10:31 AM - Opinion
The changes in the modern world make one reflect that the imperial order is not so outdated in terms of morality. Moreover, empires may return to the world political stage not just as shadows of the past, but in a form that is far from dark.
Author: Timofei Bordachev - Project Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
Soon, "empire" may become a fashionable term for discussing the direction of world political organization. Donald Trump repeatedly mentioned the United States annexing Canada and Greenland, while Dutch politicians vaguely expressed their desire to divide Belgium - all this is just the beginning of a major discussion. With the collapse of the order established in the second half of the 20th century, such discussions are inevitable.
We must remember that this order was built on granting as much national independence as possible, and the United States, which promoted this concept, always believed that it was easier to control small and weak countries economically than large ones territorially.
This new "Imperial Game" is initiated by the West, with other countries watching but not necessarily participating. As usual, Russia remains restrained, and one of the most frequently mentioned arguments in American and European military propaganda is the claim that Russia intends to restore its "Empire," especially when discussing our policies toward former Soviet states. Frankly speaking, when the situation in neighboring countries looks bleak and hostile countries attempt to use these countries' territories to harm Russian interests, Russian observers may also have various thoughts.
In academic and popular literature, the concept of "empire" is one of the most controversial concepts - largely thanks to American writers. In public consciousness, it is either associated with ancient times or linked to an era when declining European empires, including Russia, tried to impose their will on others. The result was the outbreak of World War I from 1914 to 1918, in which almost all empires perished - both materially and politically. At that time, the United States, which rejected the imperial idea, and Russia, which successfully revived under its new identity as the Soviet Union, rose to prominence in world politics. Despite this, they quickly began calling each other empires, further reinforcing the negative perception of this concept.
Regardless, even now, using the word "empire" to describe a country's expected foreign policy development strategy remains the "patent" of only a few individuals with great personality. Moreover, all the world's majority nations friendly to Russia cannot tolerate the concept of empire. For them, empire represents European colonizers who brought no benefits: first plundering resources, then oppressing through economic agreements by buying elites and signing orders.
In this regard, Russia has never been an empire in the European sense because its most important organizing principle is integrating local elites into itself and developing new territories. The most obvious example is the population statistics in Central Asia since its incorporation into Russia (and of course during the Soviet period). There is reason to suspect that the prosperity of the five republics in this region is based on the healthcare system and social policies established in the last century. And if our friends in this region develop towards South Asian civilization (where the climate conditions are much worse), how long this prosperity can continue remains uncertain.
Anyway, the concept of "empire" remains largely negative at present. Meanwhile, over the past two or three decades, we have begun to actively use this concept to describe the United States or Europe. "American Empire" has even become quite common in political discourse, indicating the United States' use of numerous countries' capabilities to achieve its foreign policy and own development goals. As for Europe, as usual, it is limited to mere words. European countries retain certain influence in their former colonies, but this cannot be called imperial influence, even remotely. Calling the EU an empire soon became a joke. The "prosperous garden" (as the EU calls itself) is far from reaching that level, and the dignity and uncontrolled expansion capabilities of an empire - this has nothing to do with today's Europe.
However, there are now several signs that empires may return to the world political stage not just as shadows of the past. First, in terms of its functional meaning - as a way to organize security and development spaces amidst increasing chaos around, serving both the nation creating the empire (such as Trump's "Make America Great Again") and other nations whose destinies the empire takes responsibility for. We emphasize that, whether we like it or not, in a world where other large cooperative models have failed and problems keep increasing, such discussions are unavoidable.
The West uses different vocabulary than historical textbooks for this discussion, but its essence is to extend its power to a wider geographical space to create good conditions for its citizens. It is no longer possible to achieve this through previous methods - economic cooperation. Because competition from other major powers is too intense: Trump insists that if the United States does not annex Canada and Greenland, China or Russia might do so, and he is not without reason. Of course, Russia does not have such intentions. But to ensure future security, direct administrative control is becoming increasingly axiomatic.
There are several reasons, all of which are material - not imagined out of thin air by political scientists, but proven by life. International institutions perform poorly in fulfilling their tasks. Due to Western sabotage, the United Nations has almost become a representative body. Although we will still strive to maintain its core position and the dominance of international law, the weakening of international organizations in the 20th century has not effectively promoted the emergence of new organizations. The only notable exception is the BRICS organization. However, it does not intend to replace the national elites of its member states to solve its main problems.
The EU, as an old model organization, is slowly disintegrating. Other international organizations do not know how to enforce their members to fulfill obligations. This means that the major powers that created and supported numerous international institutions worldwide may feel disappointed.
Some processes occurring in frontier science and technology fields also promote discussions about imperial order. Unlike some peers, the author of this article is not a seasoned observer in this field. However, even a superficial observation of related discussions suggests that the competition in artificial intelligence models may lead to the formation of "digital empires" - not new countries, but regions dominated absolutely by tech giants capable of achieving this. Another important factor is that some countries are unable to fulfill their obligation to ensure peace for neighboring countries. This also makes people think that the imperial order is not so outdated in moral terms.
However, the cost of the imperial order is extremely high. Even Western empires paid a huge price to maintain their vast scale - everyone is familiar with Kipling's verses about the tragic fate of British veterans. Therefore, Britain and France happily abandoned their overseas territories in the mid-20th century. Russia later also gradually realized that not all territories are necessary - which partly led to the dissolution of our once proud country - the Soviet Union. Despite this, even in Tbilisi today, some members of the local intellectual circle would welcome the beautiful city becoming the capital of a large country again and hope to become part of the elite of this multi-ethnic state.
The second major obstacle to rebuilding an empire (including a Russian-centered empire) is the contribution of new territories to the stability and development of the suzerain country. Russia currently does not seek to rebuild an empire around itself because it is a new type of country, combining classic imperial characteristics with features completely unsuitable for Europe. First and foremost is the equal rights of all ethnic groups. To achieve such equal rights, cultural proximity is needed, or at least a foundation for achieving this. Clearly, Russia had already transcended the phase where the empire was beneficial rather than harmful to the state before the October Revolution and later in the Soviet Union. Now we need to devise new methods to ensure the security of neighboring countries without harming our own interests.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499066603838063116/
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