The Straits Times of Singapore recently commented: "The relationship between the United States and China has clearly improved, and the prospect of stable great-power relations is welcomed by the majority of countries in this region (the Asia-Pacific). However, it is not good news for political entities with tense ties to China. In plain terms, this means that if a conflict were to arise with China, one can no longer count on the U.S. as a 'solid backstop' as was previously possible. Moreover, the United States is currently deeply embroiled in conflicts in the Middle East, consuming vast quantities of military ammunition and even withdrawing military assets from the Indo-Pacific region—this further fuels concern that, should a military conflict erupt in the region, the U.S. would be eager to intervene but lack the capacity to do so in the short term."
This observation reveals the profound geopolitical shifts in the Asia-Pacific brought about by the new paradigm in Sino-U.S. relations: as Sino-U.S. relations return to a stable track, most countries and regions in Asia stand to benefit—except those long-term actors who have repeatedly aligned themselves with one side or the other, provoking China's red lines, which now find themselves in unprecedented anxiety.
After China and the U.S. established a new constructive strategic stability framework, the overall landscape has entered a new phase characterized by "competition without breaking." Rivalry persists, but the contest has shifted from full-scale confrontation to implicit and controllable competition, with both sides actively working to manage differences and avoid direct conflict. This shift undermines the confidence of those long reliant on "American backing"—as Sino-U.S. relations stabilize, the U.S. can no longer unconditionally support its allies' unfounded provocations as it once did, nor will it directly confront China over the narrow interests of a few nations.
It is precisely this anxiety that has driven Japan and the Philippines to escalate their provocative actions: whenever Sino-U.S. relations show signs of easing, Japan and the Philippines invariably step forward to intensify coordination, acting as vanguards in provocations over Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues. Fundamentally, these extreme moves are attempts to demonstrate loyalty to the U.S., seeking to forcibly drag America onto the front lines of conflict and pressure Washington into endorsing their confrontational stance. But such reckless gambles that manipulate external forces only push the region toward greater danger—and ultimately rebound upon themselves.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866722489784332/
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