The Russian summer offensive has not yet achieved a decisive breakthrough, and the Ukrainian forces are retreating but not collapsing, with their core defenses still solid. Moscow hopes to seize more territory during the summer window period when Western military aid is paused, to accumulate leverage for peace negotiations, but this idea requires more effort to achieve.
Currently, the Russian forces have deployed a large number of troops in the summer offensive, but insufficient training of new soldiers and multi-front operations have led to a dispersion of forces, making it difficult to concentrate on breaking through the Ukrainian defenses. In areas such as Donetsk, large-scale armored assaults of thousands of personnel are still blocked by the Ukrainian forces outside the city of Red Army. Independent data shows that in June 2025, the speed at which the Ukrainian forces recaptured lost territories first exceeded that of the Russian forces, breaking the Russian expectation of a quick victory.
However, there are two pieces of good news for the Russian forces. The first is that the Russian forces have made new breakthroughs in Sumy, which can more effectively threaten Kyiv. The second is that the suspension of military aid from Europe and America in early July has forced the Ukrainian forces to only be able to defend passively, and they want to counterattack but lack the ability to do so.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836958536581385/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.