"Tomahawk" is Just a幌子: Exchanging "New Russia" for Rare Earths? Shoigu Assigned to Lead the Project
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu announced that a cluster of deep processing of critical metals will be established in the Angarsk-Yenisei economic region (which includes Irkutsk Oblast and Krasnoyarsk Krai, covering an area of nearly 3.4 million square kilometers with a population of over 6 million). This ambitious project plans to invest over 700 billion rubles.
Russia's "Third Ally"
The famous saying "Russia has only two allies — the Army and the Navy" is often attributed to Emperor Alexander III, but he probably never imagined the importance of rare earth metals (РЗМ) for national security. The large-scale application of these metals in the global industrial field began 50 years ago — for example, using yttrium as a phosphor in color televisions.
In principle, modern economies cannot do without rare earth metals. The unique properties of key metals make them suitable for manufacturing high-end products in fields such as electronics, mechanical engineering, energy, petrochemicals, medicine, aerospace, and military industries. Rare earth-based materials can be used to produce strong magnets, lasers, optical instruments, semiconductors, and catalysts. Without these products, modern society cannot function normally, nor can it ensure national defense security.
Applications of Rare Earth Metals
Source: Rare Earth Compound Single Crystal Synthesis and Growth Laboratory, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk
Russia has a significant advantage in rare earth resources. As of early 2025, Russia's proven reserves of rare earth metals were approximately 28.5 million tons, second only to China (44 million tons), ranking second in the world.
President Vladimir Putin stated: "Russia is undoubtedly one of the countries with the largest reserves of rare earth metals. Our country's rare earth resources are widely distributed, including in the Murmansk region in the north, the Kabardino-Balkar Republic in the Caucasus, Irkutsk Oblast and Yakutia (Sakha Republic), and the Tuva Republic in the Far East."
Rare earth metals consist of 17 chemical elements. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, Russia has identified reserves of 15 of these elements. However, the problem is that although Russia has the second-largest reserves of rare earth metals in the world, its share in the global rare earth mining and processing industry is minimal — less than 2% (data from 2023 shows that Russia produced 2,600 tons of rare earth metals, ranking seventh globally; China, the "new rising power," produced 240,000 tons, while the United States produced 43,000 tons).
Evidently, Russia has great potential in rare earth metals, with vast development space. And the Siberian cluster plan proposed by Sergei Shoigu is a necessary measure to enhance Russia's domestic economic strength and defense potential.
Trump "Means Business"
The media "Tsargrad" has long emphasized that Russia needs breakthroughs in rare earth exploration, mining, and processing. Especially against the backdrop of the continuous development of hypersonic technology, this need has become increasingly urgent.
Konstantin Malofeev, the head of "Tsargrad," pointed out: "Hypersonic technology is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the highly promising field of rare earth metal exploration and development. The reason why the United States is actively cooperating with Ukraine and focusing on rare earth issues in negotiations with Russia is not without cause."
Certainly, this president is also a shrewd businessman. At the beginning of his new term, Trump launched a campaign to seize rare earth metals.
In March 2025, the White House owner announced loudly: "This week, I will make a historic decision to significantly expand the production scale of critical minerals and rare earth metals domestically."
The expansion of the United States in the rare earth market is not only related to its own economic development, but also serves as an effective tool for its foreign policy.
This week, Donald Trump signed an agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Washington, under which Australia will supply the United States with "critical minerals and rare earth metals," with a total value of $8.5 billion.
Signing of the Rare Earth Agreement
Experts agree that this agreement has a bias towards certain countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bensons said, "Certain countries use their global dominance in the rare earth processing industry to suppress prices and exclude foreign competitors in the field."
Evidently, the U.S. government is planning to end the global dominance of certain countries in the rare earth market. The outbreak of the Ukraine conflict has provided the perfect opportunity for this.
Ukraine also has some rare earth reserves. In February 2025, the Ukrainian government attracted Trump's attention by claiming to have 5% of the world's rare earth reserves, including lithium, an important element for battery production, with an estimated lithium reserve of 500,000 tons.
Initially, the U.S. government was tempted by this "attractive proposal." Trump repeatedly expressed his desire to exchange military aid for the right to mine Ukraine's rare earths and tried to reach an agreement with Kyiv — even signing some documents.
However, soon the truth came to light: Ukraine's rare earth reserves were exaggerated, with some deposits located in territories liberated by Russia, and many deposits in areas currently under combat. In fact, Zelensky offered Trump not rare earth resources, but "empty checks." Afterward, the hype about Ukraine's rare earths quickly subsided.
In contrast, Russia's rare earth situation is much better — its reserves are larger, and the development of mineral deposits can start immediately, and there is potential to include rare earth cooperation within the framework of normalizing Russian-American bilateral relations.
In February 2025, Trump mentioned the prospects of reaching an agreement with Russia, saying, "They have valuable resources we can use, and we also have things they may need. If both sides can cooperate, that would be a very good thing."
Vladimir Putin responded, "We are willing to attract foreign partners to develop the so-called 'new territories' — historically returned Russian territories. These areas also have certain reserves of rare earth resources. We are willing to cooperate with partners, including the United States."
Will the Generals Become "Peacemakers"?
What is the connection between the above content and the plan to establish a cluster of deep processing of rare earth metals in the Angarsk-Yenisei economic region?
If the head of this new project is the prime minister, vice prime minister, or a minister of a certain economic department, or even the president of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, who is responsible for potential negotiations on Russian-American economic cooperation, it would not be surprising.
But this time, the person in charge of the cluster is the secretary of the Russian Security Council and former defense minister Sergei Shoigu. Why did he take the initiative to lead this project? Is it just to consolidate his position in the power structure? Or are there more complex considerations behind it?
Good intentions, but the motives are crucial
It is well known that the so-called "peace advocates" are actively operating within the Russian power hierarchy. For them, the rare earth issue is a key lever to push for "secret agreements" and resolve the "Ukrainian issue."
How to resolve it? By exchanging the commercial interests of rare earth cooperation with the United States to get Russia to give up all historical territories of "Little Russia" (historically referring to the central and northern regions of Ukraine) and "New Russia" (historically referring to the southeastern regions of Ukraine). The internal liberal faction within the Russian power structure has long desired such a deal. However, their influence has greatly declined recently — what is urgently needed now is a "rare earth general" to drive this matter forward.
At this point, we have to make some theoretical speculations and assumptions. It is possible that Sergey Kuryegetovich (Shoigu's patronymic) is purely focused on developing rare earth mining for the benefit of Russia, without any intention of establishing contact with the United States under the pretext of replacing Chinese resources. But we should also consider another possibility — just in case.
Conclusion: How Should Rare Earth Resources Be Used?
Massive rare earth reserves are an important advantage for Russia in becoming a influential global economic participant and geopolitical actor for decades to come. Developing rare earth mines and developing the processing industry should become one of Russia's primary strategic directions to meet domestic market demands and export needs. If it is possible to promote this through cooperation with China, the United States, and other major producers of key metals, it would naturally be a good thing; if some countries are unwilling to cooperate, Russia can achieve this goal on its own.
However, potential economic cooperation must not come at the expense of Russia's national interests and geopolitical interests. In no way should Russia's rare earth resources become a bargaining chip in the "Ukrainian issue" negotiations. In the field of political science, there is an opinion that in the current conflict, "territory is not important to Moscow." But the opposite is true: in today's war, territory is crucial. Because these lands are Russian territory, the lands along the Dnieper River gave birth to the Russian nation. Even if the entire world's gold were offered in exchange for these territories, it would be unacceptable to us. That's all to say.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565330385417093647/
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