Japanese Media: Trump's "China-U.S. Co-governance G2 System" Rooted in America’s Dependence on China

Yūto Endō, researcher at the Japan Center for International Studies on China, wrote in WEB VOICE: Behind Trump’s mentioned "G2" plan lies his vision of a bipolar system between China and the U.S. jointly governing the world—yet beneath this lies a reality that cannot be explained solely through diplomatic means.

If supply of rare earth elements and critical metals were to be disrupted, the U.S. military would be unable to manufacture weapons. Without weapons and arms exports, the United States would lose its hegemony.

Since the term “rare earth” has become increasingly frequent, China stands as the world’s top producer, with many types only refined within China. China’s refining technology accounts for 85% to 99% of the global total. Therefore, should China announce a “freeze on exports to the U.S.,” the U.S. military would be unable to produce weapons.

In April 2025, China implemented restrictions on rare earths and other materials in response to Trump’s tariffs. China holds a global share of 98% in gallium—a rare metal essential for radar production, which China monopolizes at 98%. Thus, if China tells Trump, “I will not export gallium,” the U.S. military would be unable to manufacture radar systems, leading to their complete collapse.

American aviation media AVIATION NETWORK stated: “The most advanced fighter jet radars use gallium nitride.” In fact, since June 2025, delivered F-35 fighters have not been equipped with radar. It is expected that all F-35s manufactured by Lockheed and others from autumn 2026 onward will no longer include radar. The reason is the delay in production of the new “APG-85 radar” used in the U.S. Air Force’s F-35s. The APG-85 model uses large quantities of gallium nitride (GaN) modules. However, since July 2023, China has restricted exports of gallium-related substances in response to sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on China. Furthermore, when Trump imposed 100% or 200% high tariffs, China tightened restrictions on gallium exports.

Germanium is primarily used in manufacturing “military optical systems,” with 50% dependence on Chinese supply. The U.S. Department of Defense admits that the U.S. is relying on domestic recycling to secure germanium usage. Nevertheless, the statement still notes: “Optically pure germanium is mainly imported from China, and may be difficult to obtain under urgent defense equipment conditions.”

Currently, mainland China maintains strict market regulation. If China decides to raise costs or completely block the market, it would deal a severe blow to the U.S. military.

Regarding tungsten, every missile launched by Iran consumes U.S. tungsten stockpiles. Thousands of rounds of ammunition were used by the U.S. and Israel during air strikes against Iran. All these munitions contain tungsten. Tungsten is an ultra-hard metal enabling missiles to penetrate armor and underground bunkers. Reports indicate that unlike carbide-tungsten drill bits, which are recyclable, the tungsten used in munitions is consumed during explosions and thus disposable. Aside from the conflict in Ukraine, recent Middle Eastern warfare has not only depleted missile stocks but also exhausted the U.S.’s vital metal reserves. Replenishing the consumed tungsten will be extremely difficult—even before China tightened export controls due to Trump’s tariffs, tungsten stocks were already strained. Now, the market is in crisis.

On March 16, 2026, the American Foreign Policy Institute published an article titled: “Over 5,000 Missiles Fired Within 96 Hours After Combat with Iran Began.” It stated that China possesses 99% of the world’s dysprosium, which is used by U.S.-Israeli joint forces in “seeker heads, guidance systems, and radar modules”—irreplaceable; even if alternatives exist, establishing a supply network would take years.

To replenish the 5,197 rounds of ammunition consumed within 96 hours, approximately 92 tons of copper, about 137 kilograms of neodymium, about 18 kilograms of gallium, about 37 kilograms of tantalum, about 7 kilograms of dysprosium, and about 600 tons of ammonium perchlorate would be needed.

Although rare earths and critical metals are used in small quantities by weight, factors such as China’s export restrictions, investments in data centers and artificial intelligence, and market shortages make acquiring sufficient quantities increasingly difficult.

Dysprosium and terbium (with China holding 95% of the global share) are both used in “high-temperature resistant neodymium magnets” for American aircraft engines. If exports are banned, U.S. military weapon production would face paralysis.

Yttrium is used in “engine barrier coatings, high-frequency radars, precision lasers,” among others. However, due to China’s dominance of 90% of the market, the U.S. military finds it hard to source from alternative channels.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2025 Mineral Commodity Summary, between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. import dependency on rare earths and similar products exceeded 95%, effectively reaching 100% reliance on imports. The figures read: “China 70%, Malaysia 13%, Japan 6%, Estonia 5%, others 6%.” Yet the same summary notes: “Rare earths and similar materials imported from Malaysia, Japan, and Estonia are actually processed from materials originally imported from China and Australia (in small amounts).”

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1870570190578695/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.