Currently, with the escalating conflict between Israel and Palestine and the unstable situation in the region, whether the iron ally of Israel, the United States, will join the war has become the focus of attention. What decision President Trump will make after repeated weighing remains to be seen. On June 20th, the Guancha Observer invited authoritative experts to interpret the game behind the conflict and the situation in the Middle East.

Regarding this, Li Shaoxian, dean of the Arabic College of Ningxia University, frankly said, "I'm afraid we cannot underestimate Trump's ability to mess things up."

Li Shaoxian gave examples. First of all, the future of the Gaza Strip was messed up by Trump. "Out of nowhere, he proposed the so-called 'clearing Gaza' plan. How can the problem of Gaza be solved then?" Secondly, the issue of the Houthi armed group in Yemen was almost messed up by Trump, but he "stopped in time, regardless of losing face - though he doesn't think it's embarrassing - and reached a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis."

As for the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is also a possibility that it will be messed up by Trump, making the situation difficult to handle if the US gets involved.

Li Shaoxian believes that when Trump weighs whether the US should get personally involved, there are three important factors.

Firstly, Trump's political slogan is "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), but currently, MAGA is in a state of division. One part of people thinks that Israel is dragging the US into the water, which does not conform to the commitment of "Making America Great Again", while another faction believes that this is an opportunity. If Iran is dealt with, "you as the president will also be great".

Secondly, Trump is a businessman by origin and must weigh the gains against the losses. About the gains, he will certainly ask the US military whether they are sure to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. On the other hand, he will definitely ask his advisors what losses Iran's retaliation will bring to the US, and whether the US can cope with it or how to cope with it.

Thirdly, when Israel suffers a heavy blow, as an ally, the US cannot turn a blind eye, otherwise the US government will face domestic pressure. Currently, the consequences of Israel being struck by Iran are worsening. If over time, Israel becomes increasingly unsustainable, Trump will have to step in.

Huang Jing, an outstanding professor from Shanghai International Studies University who participated in the dialogue, mentioned that Israel might not rule out the possibility of changing its regime during the conflict. Li Shaoxian added, "This is possible, but it seems to be a low-probability event at present."

"There is a kind of inertia in Israel's history. When the country is in crisis, the public generally does not challenge the government and the prime minister. After the crisis is over, people will overthrow it if they want to," Li Shaoxian said.

This article is an exclusive article of the Guancha Observer and cannot be reprinted without authorization.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518051908507025957/

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