Reference News Network, September 14 report. According to the Associated Press on September 12, the latest report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that President Donald Trump's tariff policies, immigration control measures, and comprehensive implementation of tax and spending bills will raise unemployment and inflation rates this year, suppress overall economic growth, and only improve next year.

The Congressional Budget Office updated its new economic forecasts for the next three years on Friday, revising its outlook released before Trump took office in January.

The latest data compared with previous changes shows that this year's unemployment rate, inflation rate, and overall growth rate are expected to be worse than the initial forecast, while the economic situation in subsequent years is expected to stabilize.

The CBO's outlook report attempts to set expectations for the economy to help Congress and administrative officials make policy decisions. Its predictions generally do not involve assessments of economic downturns or recessions, and its assessment numbers usually return to expected average values over time.

However, the outlook released on Friday shows that Trump's choices have largely changed the trajectory of the U.S. economy, temporarily constraining economic growth, and these choices have not yet shown the positive effects he promised, such as increasing employment and reducing the budget deficit.

White House spokesperson Kush Das told our reporters: "Americans also heard similar pessimistic predictions during President Trump's first term. At that time, the president's economic policies drove multiple historical growths in employment, wages, and the economy, and achieved the first reduction in the wealth gap in decades."

He said: "The same tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and energy expansion policies will work again in President Trump's second term and prove the predictors wrong."

In general, the Congressional Budget Office expects the actual GDP growth rate to fall from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.4% this year, further down from the original forecast of 1.9%. The CBO attributed the expected decline to the new tariff policy and reduced immigration leading to a slowdown in consumer spending.

The report stated that tariffs "increased the prices of consumer goods and services, thus weakening household purchasing power; they also increased production costs for businesses using imported and import-competing raw materials."

However, it is expected that the GDP growth rate will rebound to 2.2% in 2026, higher than the 1.8% predicted by the CBO in January. The CBO said in its latest report that 2027 and 2028 will stabilize at 1.8%.

In addition, the CBO expects the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% in 2025, higher than the initially expected 4.3%. It is expected that the unemployment rate will reach 4.2% in 2026, slightly lower than the initially expected 4.4%, and stabilize at 4.4% in 2027 and 2028.

The CBO expects the inflation rate to reach 3.1% for the remainder of 2025, higher than the 2.2% predicted in January. The inflation rate is expected to drop to 2.4% in 2026, higher than the initially expected 2.1%, and then stabilize at 2% for the next two years.

A report released by the Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday showed that Trump's large-scale deportation plan and other tough immigration measures will lead to approximately 320,000 people being expelled from the United States over the next 10 years.

Combined with the low birth rate in the United States, the decrease in immigration means that the CBO's projection of the U.S. population in 2035 will be 4.5 million fewer than the prediction made by this nonpartisan institution in January. (Translated by Ge Xuelie)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549874900924711443/

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