American Think Tank: How the US Can Maintain Deterrence After Khamenei
The End of the Islamic Republic is a huge opportunity for Iran, but also a serious threat to regional stability. The United States should be prepared.
President Donald Trump has long believed that once the deterrence against American adversaries is weakened, it must be restored decisively. Throughout his efforts to confront the Iranian regime and remove Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he has consistently followed this principle.
The Islamic Republic and Iran
Clarity in strategy also requires distinction. Iran is not equivalent to the Islamic Republic. Iran is a civilization state, with a large human capital, a young and well-educated population, and a society that has repeatedly shown civic courage.
The United States Must Defend the Abraham Accords
American interests are also closely tied to the security of regional partners who have chosen modernization over confrontation. The Abraham Accords achieved normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states, marking a shift in strategic focus toward integration, technological cooperation, and economic interdependence. The UAE and Bahrain chose this path, taking real political risks.
Preparing for the Future After the Collapse of the Islamic Republic
Iran is currently facing increasingly severe structural pressures: economic fragility, limited proxy networks, sanctions, and ongoing domestic unrest. The regime's room for maneuver is rapidly shrinking. This does not guarantee that change will occur, but it creates the possibility of change. Responsible policy requires preparation for such an event.
Four priorities should immediately stand out. The United States should ensure the security of nuclear facilities and missile infrastructure to prevent proliferation or sabotage; prevent internal divisions within the armed forces and ensure that some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps do not reorganize into rebel militias; maintain territorial integrity and avoid conflicts leading to fragmentation; and support the rapid establishment of transitional power structures capable of restoring order and establishing constitutional governance. This requires immediate contact with credible opposition figures and civil society networks.
The most prominent and well-organized opposition figure at present is Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. His father's legacy remains controversial - and history must be objectively and impartially examined - but he bears no responsibility for that history. From a historical perspective, the early years of the monarchy did indeed experience significant modernization and institutional development until political僵化 in the 1970s eroded its legitimacy.
It is in America's interest that the Middle East can contain expansionist extremist tendencies, that allies feel safe when choosing integration, and that regional powers operate under predictable norms rather than falling into ideological confrontation.
Iran is at a crucial crossroads. Decisions in Tehran will determine whether Iran moves toward responsible nation-building or deeper isolation. Washington's decisions will determine whether deterrence evolves into a lasting security architecture or continues to be constrained by sporadic responses. The choices made today will not only shape the future of Iran but also influence the strategic landscape of the Middle East for decades to come, as well as America's role within it.
Source: The National Interest
Author: Ahmad Chalabi
Original: toutiao.com/article/1858653830939904/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.