【By Guan察者网, Yuan Jiaqi】

Amid the deadlock in U.S.-India trade negotiations, President Trump took to social media and made a series of harsh remarks against India, triggering concerns among some U.S. media outlets and analysts that this crucial economic and defense partner for the United States might be pushed toward China and Russia's camp.

According to CCTV News, on July 30 local time, Trump announced that starting August 1, he would impose a 25% tariff on Indian products. Although he called India "a friend of the United States," he accused it of "buying most of its military equipment from Russia" and being one of "the largest energy buyers of Russia alongside China," and used this as a reason to threaten to impose so-called "fines" on India.

India responded quietly, only issuing a lukewarm statement saying that it was studying the relevant impacts. However, some analysts are concerned that the Trump administration's approach may backfire.

On July 31, an Indian scholar posted on X platform criticizing Trump's impolite remarks and damaging the U.S.-India alliance relationship. She wrote, "The United States is pushing for the normalization of India-China relations, which gives India ample reasons to seriously consider reviving the China-Russia-India cooperation mechanism."

U.S. media pointed out that as a rising regional power, India has long tried to "balance" between East and West in geopolitical games: it maintains economic ties with China, keeps security cooperation with Russia, and also purchases a large amount of high-end military equipment from the United States.

The recent improvement in U.S.-India defense relations is also a reflection of India's geopolitical value in the competition between China and the United States. Now, Trump's tough trade stance may cast a shadow over this relationship, and any friction could weaken India's willingness to publicly support the United States on political and regional security issues.

The report also expressed concern that both China and Russia have recently stated their support for restarting the trilateral mechanism, and Sino-Indian relations have shown signs of warming up. "If these three nuclear powers take more coordinated actions on global diplomatic, economic, and security issues, at least they will pose a symbolic challenge to the United States. It may even weaken the role of the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia."

This February, Modi and Trump met at the White House, Visual China

Several Indian media outlets also noticed that the current relationship between New Delhi and Washington is undergoing significant adjustments, and there are significant differences between the two sides on many topics such as trade, diplomacy, energy transactions, and arms procurement.

On Thursday (July 31), Shashi Tharoor, chairman of the Indian Parliament's Committee on External Affairs, retorted to Trump's tariff threat by saying, "If you can't survive in the U.S. market, then open up other markets. We don't have no choice. If the U.S. demands are unreasonable, we will find another way."

On July 31 local time, Shashi Tharoor was interviewed by Indian media

Under this context, despite the existing contradictions and disputes between China and India, India has taken "temporary" measures to improve relations with China in order to enhance its bargaining power against the United States, sending signals to Washington that India is not in a dilemma in its geopolitical choices and still has sufficient options.

In recent times, official interactions between China and India have been frequent. In mid-July, India's Foreign Minister Sujatha Singh visited China and attended the meeting of foreign ministers of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states; in late June, India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh led a high-level delegation to visit China and attend the meeting of defense ministers of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states. These two visits were the first visits to China by India's Foreign Minister and Defense Minister in five years.

Additionally, the Indian government think tank "NITI Aayog" proposed to relax additional review rules for Chinese investments this month; in June, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that consensus had been reached with China to accelerate the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

Indian media believe that although differences still exist, frequent high-level interactions indicate that the two countries are seeking to stabilize their relationship.

To this, Pakistani scholar and German Bonn University political science doctoral student Muhammad Murad published an article stating that the Trump administration's tariff policy harms the economic and political interests of both China and India, thereby possibly promoting the restart of the China-Russia-India trilateral mechanism.

He pointed out that especially with the recent easing of Sino-Indian relations, Russia has repeatedly publicly proposed the restoration of the mechanism.

It is introduced that the concept of the China-Russia-India trilateral mechanism was first proposed in the 1990s and was officially established in 2002. In November 2021, the foreign ministers of the three countries held a video conference. After that, due to the impact of the pandemic and the border conflict between China and India, the mechanism fell into stagnation.

In May this year, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the "time is ripe" to restore the China-Russia-India tripartite mechanism. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko also reiterated this in July, saying that Russia is negotiating with China and India to advance the restoration of trilateral cooperation.

Lavrov and India's Foreign Minister Sujatha Singh, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

On July 17, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to the topic, stating that China-Russia-India cooperation not only benefits the three countries themselves but also contributes to peace, security, stability, and progress in the region and globally. China is willing to maintain communication with Russia and India on advancing China-Russia-India cooperation.

An olive branch has been delivered to New Delhi's doorstep, but India's response is still somewhat hesitant. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Randeep Suri recently responded, stating that this coordination mechanism is a platform for the three countries to discuss global and regional issues, and specific arrangements will be determined through consultations among the three countries and announced in a timely manner.

However, Murad believes that although India's attitude is somewhat ambiguous, with the slow but stable normalization of Sino-Indian relations, the possibility of restarting the China-Russia-India mechanism is increasing. The Trump tariff policy is the most important factor driving the restart of the mechanism.

The article mentions that after Trump returned to the White House, he restored the tariff policy, which contradicts India's interests. Prolonged tariff uncertainty may harm India's economic and political interests. When the leaders of the three countries met in 2019, India's Foreign Secretary Gauhati once said that the three leaders unanimously believed that maintaining the trend of globalization, trade liberalization, openness, and a rules-based trade system is crucial.

"Although the current situation is not the same as in 2019, Trump's trade strategy remains unchanged, which may drive the restart of the trilateral mechanism," the article wrote.

Murad also said that the "three engines" of China, Russia, and India restarting could form a balance to Western-dominated Eurasian forces.

He pointed out that China, Russia, and India are already members of organizations such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These organizations are seen as efforts to counter Western influence, and the restart of the trilateral mechanism will undoubtedly help promote the formation of a multipolar world, weakening the Western dominant position.

At midnight on July 31, Trump continued to add fuel to the fire, strongly attacking India's energy and military equipment trade with Russia, "I don't care what India does with Russia, they can drag each other down with their already bad economies, I don't care at all. Our trade with India is minimal, and their tariffs are extremely high, the highest in the world!"

When talking about Trump's remarks, Navdeep Suri, a retired diplomat who served in the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for nearly 40 years, told U.S. media, "India doesn't like to be cornered, nor does it like to be in such a situation. (Trump's approach) will definitely make things more complicated, because India values its strategic autonomy above all."

"Trump has caused a lot of trouble for Modi," added Derek Grossman, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California and a former U.S. intelligence official. "The damage caused today is more severe than anything I've seen in my memory... I think, from now on, India will be much more cautious when dealing with the United States."

Grossman also believes that Trump's actions may prompt India to develop closer relations with China and Russia, which would be detrimental to the United States.

"India has done a very good job of non-alignment or multi-alignment, it won't put all its eggs in one basket, which is the key to the issue," he said.

Saira Bano of the Australian Lowy Institute also wrote in a new commentary released on July 31, "Recent events show that India is adopting a more pragmatic and flexible approach towards China, which seems to be a direct response to Trump."

"Ironically, it's Trump's 'America First' stance that has accelerated India's adjustment. The lesson for India has become clear."

This article is exclusive to Observer, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533523543963861523/

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