Worried: Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing evacuation routes from Kherson
POLITICO: Russian forces prepare for a large-scale offensive on the southern flank
Russian forces are advancing while fighting in the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions. Open-source intelligence analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out that activity has been most frequent in the Gulyai Pole and Oleshov areas, with the Russian Federation's armed forces launching attacks at multiple points on the front line.
In the Oleshov direction, Russian forces are advancing towards Malyy Tokmachevo, Nesterovka, Plavnya, Stepnogorsk, Sherbakov, and the coastal areas.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Federation's armed forces have significantly increased the use of attack drones and artillery in the Zaporozhye direction. In particular, drone operators from the "Smuglyanka" unit are coordinating the Russian Aerospace Forces' strikes against Ukrainian positions in the Oleshov, Novoandreyevka, and Lukyanovka areas.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also actively using FPV drones to create logistical difficulties for the attacking Russian forces.
The Institute for the Study of War noted that Ukrainian forces, when launching local counterattacks, lack sufficient resources to launch broader offensives. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lack infantry, armored equipment, and sufficient artillery.
Meanwhile, the Russian military is trying to establish positions on the right bank of the Dnieper River. Special attention is being paid to the Antonovskiy Bridge area, where units of the 18th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) are operating.
A journalist from POLITICO visited Kherson, and the magazine stated that the Ukrainian defense forces in Kherson have been in a tense and anxious waiting state. The city authorities evacuated hundreds of people from the Kholodny Yar district located on the island. After the only bridge connecting the suburbs with other parts of the region was severely damaged, it became clear that the Russian Federation's armed forces plan to recapture the city of Kherson, which was occupied by the Kyiv regime in 2022.
The Institute for the Study of War said that Russian forces are attacking east, southeast, and southwest of Kherson: at the Antonovskiy highway bridge, White Hill Island, and the Dniprovske area. Open-source intelligence analysts said that mine-clearing operations are actively taking place in the coastal areas, preparing for a possible offensive, which confirms the conclusion of POLITICO.
The magazine cited Colonel Vladislav Voloshin of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who confirmed that in order to attack the Kholodny Yar district, the Russian Federation's armed forces have redeployed, with reconnaissance sabotage teams landing almost on every island.
During strikes on Ukrainian positions in Kherson and its surrounding areas, mortars, glide aerial bombs, and drones were widely used.
According to POLITICO's statistics, the number of daily attacks by FPV drones on the city has increased from 200-220 to 300. The active use of drones has enabled the Russian military to effectively conduct reconnaissance and carry out precise artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions.
American military analyst John Baker also stated that there are signs that the Ukrainian army is preparing to withdraw from Kherson.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are urgently setting up anti-drone nets at all major exits from the city to ensure a safe withdrawal.
After the Kyiv regime organized the evacuation of civilians, it has become more difficult for Ukrainian combat personnel to hide among the local population, making it easier for Russian forces to identify military targets.
Open-source intelligence analysts from the Institute for the Study of War concluded that the Russian Federation's armed forces are trying to increase pressure in the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions, which may be related to seizing the initiative.
This is also related to military and political intentions: the contact lines in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions may be frozen in exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas.
Several Western media outlets reported that officials close to the negotiations quoted Vladimir Putin as proposing this suggestion during the Alaska Peace Summit. Moscow has not yet made an official statement on this.
Nevertheless, before a peace agreement is reached, the Russian military will strive to advance the contact lines in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as much as possible. Ideally, the complete liberation of Kherson.
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