【By Observer Net, Liu Bai】

While European politicians keep emphasizing "de-risking" from China, the latest trade data reveals a completely different reality: Europe's economy is becoming more deeply dependent on China than ever before.

According to a report by the French newspaper Les Échos on November 17, in the past 12 months, China's trade surplus with the EU reached 310 billion USD, exceeding its trade surplus with the United States of 302 billion USD. This situation has never occurred except for three months during the 2008 subprime crisis when the US economy stagnated.

European industry insiders believe that this phenomenon stems from China's industrial upgrading coinciding with areas where Europe historically had core competitive advantages, such as the automotive industry, future aviation industry, and machine tools. Some have raised alarms about the future of European industries, with Germany being the most affected.

French research firm Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie analyzed Chinese customs data and found that between October 2024 and October 2025, China's trade surplus with the EU exceeded its trade surplus with the US. Since 2019, China's trade surplus with the EU has nearly doubled.

He believes that with the Trump administration's tariff policies essentially closing the door to the US market for Chinese exports, this phenomenon may further intensify, making Europe directly face the impact of Chinese industries.

Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie pointed out: "The reason for this phenomenon is that China's industrial upgrading coincides with the areas where Europe historically had core competitive advantages, namely transportation, the current automotive industry, the future aviation industry, and equipment products such as machine tools and basic industries like chemicals."

He emphasized: "Therefore, Europe not only faces the impact of China in its domestic market, but also in third-party markets. China's industrial strength is formidable, and its footprint is global. European companies' exports lack alternative markets to retreat to."

The sunset view at the Blohm + Voss shipyard in Hamburg, Germany IC Photo

The report said that for Europe, this is the second "China shock" after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the early 21st century.

European industry, which is essentially German industry, has made Germany the target of China's competition. Deutsche Bank economists believe: "China is increasingly competing directly with Germany in global markets and within Europe."

Between 2019 and 2024, Germany's exports to China decreased by 9%, while China's exports to Germany increased by 40%. Only six years ago, Germany still maintained a trade surplus of about 30 billion USD with China, but in the past 12 months, Germany's trade deficit with China has already reached 25 billion USD.

Official German statistical data shows that from January to August this year, China replaced the United States as Germany's largest trading partner. The main reason for this change is that the US reactivated its tariff policy, leading to a decline in Germany's exports to the US, while Germany's imports from China increased significantly.

Analysts point out that this trend reflects the limitations of Europe's "de-risking" strategy, with China's trade influence on Germany once again reaching its peak.

Regarding the decline in Germany's exports to China, Deutsche Bank economist Vincent Stamer said it was mainly due to structural factors.

"China has been climbing the value chain ladder and is increasingly producing more complex products that were previously imported from Germany," Stamer said. "In addition, German companies are increasingly producing locally in China rather than exporting products from Germany to China."

The newspaper Les Échos noted that economists from the Cologne Institute of Economic Research also emphasized in a study released this week: "In the first half of 2025, the US import from China fell by nearly 16%, while Germany's import from China increased by about 11%. At the same time, the prices of these goods fell by nearly 4%. This indicates that Chinese suppliers are impacting the German market."

This phenomenon has had significant real-world impacts. The report states that although it cannot be entirely attributed to China for the difficulties in German industry, China is undoubtedly one of the key factors.

"German industry is in deep trouble. Compared to 2019, employment has decreased by nearly 7%, i.e., 500,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost over six years," warned Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie. "This complex issue does not have a simple and effective solution."

The magazine Modern Diplomacy in Europe analyzed in an article in October that the trade situation between China and Europe, especially between China and Germany, highlights how American protectionist policies and China's price advantages are reshaping the global trade landscape. Some views suggest that current German exporters are facing the dilemma of declining demand for cars, machinery, and chemicals in the US; China continues to push for industrial upgrading to maintain export competitiveness; and the Trump administration uses tariffs to pressure foreign producers to boost American industry.

This situation has put EU policymakers in a dilemma, as they need to maintain transatlantic relations while carefully managing their economic and trade relationship with China.

Notably, amid the weakness in industrial competition, trade protectionism within Europe is on the rise.

Bruegel Institute economist Dalia Marin proposed in an article published this summer: "The European Commission should establish a partnership with China, open up the European market to it, in exchange for China's commitment to invest in Europe and establish joint ventures with European companies, while achieving technology transfer."

Imposing additional tariffs is also a feasible option. This is a solution supported by the German Economic Institute.

The author of the study, Jürgen Matthes, stated that China's industries can compete at low prices, so Brussels should use anti-dumping tariffs more extensively to restore a "fair competitive environment."

Last week, Nicolas Dufourcq, president of the French National Investment Bank, said that Europe should "temporarily close its market."

In contrast, China has always handled Sino-European relations with an open and win-win cooperation mindset.

At a regular press conference on November 14, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian answered questions regarding the report "China Enterprises in the EU Development Report" issued by the EU Chamber of Commerce. He said that in recent years, the EU has been promoting economic competition with China, continuously pushing for "de-risking" from China, using the names of maintaining "economic security" and "fair competition" to introduce a series of protectionist measures. Such actions not only fail to improve the competitiveness of the EU's own industries, but also send negative signals that the openness of the EU market is constantly deteriorating, affecting the confidence of Chinese enterprises investing in the EU, ultimately harming the interests of the EU itself.

Lin Jian called on China and Europe to uphold dialogue and cooperation, firmly safeguard free trade and fair competition, and properly resolve differences and friction through dialogue and consultation. He hopes the EU will abide by its commitments to market openness and principles of fair competition, earnestly listen to and take into account the reasonable suggestions and legitimate demands of Chinese enterprises, and create a fair and predictable market environment for Chinese enterprises to invest and operate in Europe.

This article is an exclusive work of Observer Net. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7574228472021746195/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【Top/Down】 buttons below.