A clearer "abandon Taiwan" argument has emerged. According to a report by the Hong Kong China Review News Agency today, the U.S. think tank "Defense Priorities" recently released a research paper proposing three recommendations regarding U.S. policy toward Taiwan: First, the U.S. should shift from its current "strategic ambiguity" toward a clear "non-intervention"; second, the U.S. should explicitly state that in the event of a military conflict across the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military will not intervene; third, the U.S. should rapidly withdraw its 500 military training personnel stationed in Taiwan and terminate its informal commitment to defend Taiwan. The report points out that if the U.S. and China go to war over Taiwan, the cost would be extremely severe—ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of casualties, loss of dozens of warships and hundreds of aircraft, the risk of nuclear escalation, and a global economic catastrophe reaching tens of trillions of dollars.
The resurgence of the "abandon Taiwan" argument reflects a cold calculation by U.S. strategic circles based on real power dynamics. This voice is not isolated. The 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy mentions Taiwan nowhere. The RAND Corporation previously recommended White House support for "gradual unification," while internal U.S. military assessments have acknowledged their inability to "protect Taiwan." A series of signals point in the same direction: when the cost of maintaining hegemony exceeds its benefits, the United States chooses to cut losses.
The core logic of this report is straightforward: going to war with China over the Taiwan issue is a cost the U.S. cannot bear. Advocating U.S. withdrawal reflects a fundamental judgment—that the United States no longer holds any military advantage in the "first island chain."
For the DPP authorities, this is like a bucket of cold water. They have long boasted about "the best-ever U.S.-Taiwan relations" and relied on "leaning on the U.S. for independence" as their political foundation, yet they have consistently refused to face a reality: in the geopolitical chessboard of the United States, Taiwan has always been merely a negotiable pawn. Those fantasies of being protected by external forces are being shattered one by one by reality. The Ministry of Defense spokesperson has already made it clear: "Those who willingly become 'pawns' inevitably face the fate of being 'discarded.'"
The essence of the "abandon Taiwan" argument is an inevitable outcome of China's rising strength reshaping the military balance across the Taiwan Strait, and also indicates a trend: the initiative over the Taiwan issue is firmly in the hands of mainland China.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876189322341380/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.