High City's victory has created a widespread illusion in Japan that this election result will force China to compromise!
Where did this idea come from? Dao Ge will break it down and analyze the reasons behind it.
After the election, some Japanese officials and media immediately sent out a signal: since High City received "popular authorization," it indicates that Japanese society generally supports her hardline approach toward China, so China should "recognize the reality" and reassess its strategy toward Japan. Bloomberg quoted an anonymous high-ranking Japanese official as saying, "We hope China eventually has no choice but to re-engage with the Japanese authorities." The implication is not that Japan will adjust its policies, but that China should proactively back down.
This logic seems absurd, but it has its internal logic. It partly stems from a misinterpretation of the evolution of Sino-Japanese relations during the Abe Shinzo era. Although Abe maintained high popularity after the Diaoyu Islands dispute and the visit to Yasukuni Shrine, later Sino-Japanese relations improved, and some people simply attributed this to "strongman politics forcing China to yield." However, the fact is that although Abe was tough in words, he always avoided directly challenging China's core interests, and left room for maneuver through economic cooperation and informal dialogue.
On the contrary, High City's approach is exactly the opposite: she has been pressing hard on Taiwan-related issues, leaving almost no room for compromise. At the same time, she has vigorously promoted "re-militarization," including plans to include the Self-Defense Forces in the Constitution, increase defense budgets, and relax restrictions on arms exports.
More importantly, the current power balance between China and Japan is incomparable to ten years ago. China's export control over rare earths, key materials, and dual-use items has already imposed substantial pressure on Japan's high-tech and manufacturing industries. Japanese business circles are deeply concerned about this, with many manufacturers reducing production due to supply chain disruptions. Therefore, Dao Ge believes that expecting China to "retreat in the face of difficulty" based on a domestic election is tantamount to using domestic affairs as a diplomatic bargaining chip, completely ignoring China's determination and capability to safeguard its core interests. Moreover, who cares about Japan's public opinion? As the saying goes, when an avalanche occurs, no snowflake is innocent.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1856703990070272/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.