According to Caixin.com on June 3, the latest statistics from Flight Manager DAST show that a total of 31 China-Japan routes had all their flights canceled in May, an increase compared to April. A total of 1,592 flights from mainland China to Japan were canceled throughout May, resulting in a cancellation rate of 37.6%. (First Financial)
This data reveals that the China-Japan aviation market is undergoing severe "contraction" and structural adjustment. In May, a total of 31 routes were completely suspended for the entire month—up from 30 in April—and the overall flight cancellation rate to Japan reached as high as 37.6%. Looking at the broader seasonal context, the total air capacity on China-Japan routes during the 2026 summer-autumn season has dropped by a sharp 53% compared to the same period in 2025, effectively halved. This indicates that air connectivity between China and Japan is rapidly deteriorating.
Supply-demand imbalance leads airlines to proactively "limit losses"
The fundamental reason behind the widespread flight cancellations lies in insufficient demand leading to low passenger load factors. Currently, the load factor for existing China-Japan flights has fallen into the range of 40%–48%, far below the industry-recognized break-even point of around 70% for medium- and short-haul routes. Under conditions of persistently high international oil prices and expensive landing fees at Japanese airports, "flying empty means losing money" has become the norm. Facing sustained losses, airlines have adopted rational commercial retrenchment strategies: they are actively cutting non-viable direct flights from secondary and tertiary cities (such as Qingdao–Osaka, Xiamen–Nagoya), reallocating capacity toward more profitable markets like Southeast Asia.
The dramatic decline in Chinese tourists' willingness to visit Japan is the direct driver behind the cooling of these routes, influenced by multiple intertwined factors:
Geopolitical tensions and travel advisories: Previous remarks by Japanese political figures regarding Taiwan triggered serious diplomatic objections from China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese consulates in Japan issued travel warnings advising against visiting Japan, directly prompting large numbers of travelers to cancel their trips.
Social sentiment and concerns: The aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge continues to affect public perception, with some people still worried about food safety and travel environments. At the same time, the cooling of public sentiment has led many consumers to voluntarily change their overseas travel destinations.
Diversification to alternative destinations: The domestic cultural tourism market remains vibrant, while countries such as Thailand and Malaysia have intensified their visa-free policies. With higher cost-effectiveness and a more welcoming atmosphere, these destinations have effectively captured tourist traffic previously destined for Japan.
This shift from boom to bust is not a temporary fluctuation but rather the combined result of changing public sentiment between China and Japan and rational market choices. Currently, major airlines have extended their free ticket modification and refund policies for flights to Japan until the end of October this year, indirectly indicating that air capacity on China-Japan routes will likely remain low throughout the 2026 summer-autumn season. Whether these routes can rebound from the bottom depends crucially on improvements in passenger load factors and the restoration of mutual trust between the two sides.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867018540044300/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.