Iran Continues Oil Exports in the Persian Gulf: No Immediate Need to Block the Strait of Hormuz

Today 11:32

Iran continues to export oil from its main terminal on Kharg Island. Photo.

The Israeli attacks have not damaged Iran's oil production and exports, with local companies still supplying continuously. Experts believe that under these circumstances, blocking the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk for Tehran, and such measures would only be taken in extreme situations.

Iran is still continuing oil exports through the Persian Gulf, which is the country's only export route.

Experts from global oil transportation tracking agency TankerTrackers wrote: "Most Iranian oil tankers have left the anchorage areas near Kharg Island and Asaluyeh, dispersing across the waters of the Persian Gulf."

However, they also pointed out that the main loading and export of crude oil and fuel oil are still ongoing.

TankerTrackers added: "Empty oil tankers are leaving oil and condensate terminals as a precautionary measure, similar to what we saw in early October 2024 when Israel and Iran were launching mutual attacks against each other."

Bloomberg observer Javier Blas also confirmed the continuous export of Iranian oil.

Javier Blas wrote on social platform X based on Sentinel satellite images: "The main oil terminal on Iran's Kharg Island is still loading oil tankers, with oil loading proceeding normally, and shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz are normal."

Igor Yushkov, chief analyst at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and an expert, noted that it currently makes no sense for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is indeed an extreme last resort for the country.

This expert stated: "In plain terms, Iran would only recklessly block the Strait of Hormuz when its regime is on the verge of collapse, at the cost of harming the interests of other countries."

In his view, there are several reasons why the Strait of Hormuz has not been blocked yet:

"Firstly, Iran itself needs to use the Strait to export oil, and so far, Israel has not launched attacks on its export infrastructure. Therefore, Iran continues to export and generate income without detecting any national-level threats," Igor Yushkov said.

Experts believe that at the same time, Tehran understands that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, numerous participants will immediately become involved in military conflicts – more than 20% of the world's oil and natural gas pass through here. JPMorgan once estimated that if the Strait is blocked, oil prices could soar by 50% to $120 per barrel.

"The U.S. would immediately intervene to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and is very likely to take the opportunity to completely destroy modern-day Iran to eliminate future concerns. Countries in this region would also actively promote lifting the blockade; for example, Saudi Arabia would similarly push for Iran's defeat in this situation," continued the chief analyst of the Federal Government Financial University.

He believes that a possible scenario is that Iran would block the Strait after Israel begins attacking Iran's oil infrastructure.

"By then, oil prices would already have risen, so I think blocking the Strait of Hormuz is an extreme move, the last hope dashed," the expert added.

It was reported that since late last week, Israel has been continuously attacking Iran, destroying military and nuclear facilities, researchers, and senior officers. Tel Aviv also targeted fuel warehouses near Tehran and a nuclear power plant in Tabriz, with two drones attacking the processing plant of the "South Pars" gas field. However, these attacks aimed to cut off supplies to Iran's domestic market.

Iran has retaliated against Israel. It is reported that Tehran has hit a nuclear power plant and power station in Haifa.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516472832361267753/

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