Six "Alarms" to Worry About for Russia: Predictions by Russian Scholars.

Six Warnings for Russia: Predictions by Russian Scholars that the Kremlin Should Heed

Russia is at another historic turning point. It is a moment to demonstrate maturity and strength in order to avoid catastrophic consequences.

Experts have different predictions about this. We will start with the most worrying ones:

During the Cold War, Russia had a large population, which has now significantly decreased and continues to shrink. Domestic issues, especially in the south, will divert Russia's attention from the West. Eventually, the country will disintegrate without a war (like in 1917, which was repeated in 1991), and Russia's military power will collapse shortly after 2020...

The United States does not necessarily have to win a war. Their task is to systematically destroy all life-supporting systems of the enemy, so that it cannot accumulate enough strength to rival the United States.

— George Friedman issued such a warning in his book "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century."

George Friedman is the head of STRATFOR, a private intelligence analysis institution (known as a branch of the CIA). He predicted that American power is invincible, a docile Europe will be secondary, and China will also lose its importance. Russia will regain control over the post-Soviet space in the 2020s, but will then fail and disintegrate in struggles against more powerful countries.

Vladimir Pankin, a Russian scholar who studies the political history cycles of Russia, believes that based on a 36-year cycle, the key node of the contemporary period is 2024-2025. Similar periods were 1856-1857 and 1952-1953. The Crimean War ended in 1856, and the Korean War ended in 1953.

Century Shock

To understand the prediction of this Russian scholar, let us look back at Russian history.

After the Patriotic War of 1812, a shock swept through all the military and intellectual elites of the empire — the Decembrist uprising. One reason was the budget deficit after the war.

Then Nicholas I ascended the throne. During his reign, the state budget was under great pressure due to two wars: suppressing armed uprisings in Austria-Hungary (which resulted in the Danube Empire not disintegrating), and waging war against the Ottoman Empire to liberate Slavic peoples in the Balkans. The victorious Hungarian campaign cost the treasury 47.5 million rubles in gold — the gold reserves of Russia were halved in 1849. Moreover, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, protected by Russia, survived and later became a strategic opponent of Russia.

During Nicholas I's reign, Russia made significant development, with industrial enterprises increasing from 4,189 to 15,338. Exports increased from 75 million rubles to 230 million rubles, and imports increased from 52 million rubles to 200 million rubles. However…

During Nicholas I's reign, Russia made significant development, with industrial enterprises increasing from 4,189 to 15,338.

The goal at the time was to make Russia a naval power on par with Britain and France. By the time the Crimean War began, this plan had been completed, but Russia lost the war. The reason was that, since 1829, the main opponent was the Ottoman Empire, and to counter it, the Black Sea Fleet was equipped with the most advanced sailing ships. However, Britain had entered a new technological-economic cycle, where steam locomotives dominated. In Russia, ships with propeller engines had just begun to be built — many Russian admirals still believed in the combat effectiveness of sailing ships.

The Crimean War was a prototype of a world war. Led by Britain, the anti-Russian alliance included France, the Kingdom of Sardinia (Italy), and the threatening Austro-Hungarian Empire and Prussia. The allies attacked Russia in the Caucasus, Crimea, Moldavia, Wallachia, the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the White Sea, the Barents Sea, the Azov Sea, the lower Amur River, Kamchatka Peninsula, and the Kuril Islands.

Russia held out.

According to the Treaty of Paris:

Russia would return the fortress of Kars to Turkey;
The Black Sea was declared neutral (open to merchant ships, closed to warships);
Russia and Turkey were prohibited from having navies and fortifications in the Black Sea;
The Danube was declared a free navigable river;
Some parts of Bessarabia in Russia (including the mouth of the Danube) were ceded to Moldavia;
Russia lost its exclusive protection of Christian subjects of Turkey and could not build fortifications on the Åland Islands.

Russia was deprived of the possibility of pursuing an active Eastern policy — until the next Russo-Turkish War broke out.

The Beginning of "World Reorganization"

In 1855, the emperor died. His son Alexander II (the Liberator) succeeded him, implementing political and economic reforms, including the abolition of serfdom.

In 1870, Germany defeated France under the friendly neutrality of Russia, and St. Petersburg announced the abrogation of the Treaty of Paris.

In June 1875, an uprising broke out in Bosnia against the Ottomans because tax collectors tried to tax taxes paid only days before. The uprising spread throughout the Balkans — Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Bulgaria. In May 1876, the Turks massacred 12,000 Bulgarian rebels. Austria, Germany, and Russia issued a memorandum calling for an end to military action and resolving the demands of the rebel Christians through diplomatic means. France and Italy supported the memorandum, but Britain refused to support it, believing that weakening the Ottomans would give Russia an opportunity to expand into the Near East.

The Ottomans did not accept the memorandum and continued their advance in the Balkans. In response, Russia began sending weapons, ammunition, hospital equipment, and over 20 million rubles in private donations to the region; Emperor Alexander II personally donated 10,000 rubles. About five thousand volunteers arrived.

Emperor Alexander II (the Liberator) implemented political and economic reforms, including the abolition of serfdom.

Photo taken between 1878 and 1881.

Under domestic public opinion, Russia launched a war, despite the strong opposition of Finance Minister Mikhail Lyaev. The war ended in victory, but brought huge losses to the Russian budget.

On March 31, 1878, a preliminary peace treaty was signed outside the walls of Constantinople at San Stefano. According to the treaty, Montenegro, Serbia, and Romania gained complete independence, Bulgaria became an autonomous principality, and Bosnia and Herzegovina should gain autonomy. A large Bulgaria with access to the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea would open the shortest route to Constantinople. Additionally, the mouth of the Danube, Dobruja (exchanged for Bessarabia), and the cities of Ardahan, Kars, Bayazet, and the Black Sea port of Batum were ceded to Russia. However, such results were unacceptable to both Austria and Britain. Russia's enhancement in the Balkans, especially the establishment of a large Bulgaria with access to the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea and the shortest land route to Constantinople, was something they could not accept.

Austria declared mobilization in Dalmatia and along the Danube and Sava rivers. The British fleet prepared to enter the Dardanelles. At that time, Emperor Alexander II ordered the occupation of the Turkish capital, after which the British government withdrew the fleet.

In Turkestan, Governor Konstantin von Kaufmann prepared a 30,000-man army to march into India.

All sides stood on the brink of military action and needed to consider everything comprehensively. This war had already cost Russia over 400 million rubles, and the treasury was almost exhausted.

Bismarck advocated holding an international conference (Congress), where Russia's chances of maintaining the terms of the Treaty of San Stefano were slim. Perhaps it was at that moment that the process of world reorganization began, which lasted for the entire next century and led to catastrophic events in Europe.

Russia had to concentrate its armies on the border of Serbia and Transylvania, purchase a large number of ships from the United States, prepare for a pirate war, and seek an exit. Then came a series of diplomatic measures. A French historian described it like this:

The Bulgarian campaign had already cost them over 400 million rubles, and Russia's credit was almost exhausted. That is why Alexander made a wise decision to negotiate directly with Britain and to make concessions to disarm it; these concessions were incorporated into a special memorandum signed in London on May 30, 1878. Russia sacrificed the large Bulgaria and gave up some of its conquests in Asia; Britain claimed to act for the common good, but actually only considered its own interests and the protection of its transportation routes to India, and accepted all other terms of the treaty. On June 4, Britain signed a secret treaty with the Ottoman Empire, according to which Britain promised to protect Asian Turkey from any Russian attacks; as a reward for these future services, Britain gained the right to occupy the island of Cyprus.

On June 13, 1878, a scene reminiscent of the final stage of the Crimean War unfolded in Berlin: under Bismarck's chairmanship, a Congress was convened with participation from the signatories of the Treaty of Paris in 1856.

All delegations opposed Russia.

There were fierce debates about the fate of Bulgaria: the "San Stefano-style" Bulgaria was seen as Russia's land route to the Mediterranean. Ultimately, the terms of the Treaty of San Stefano were completely revised: Bulgaria was divided into two parts along the Balkan Mountains — the northern part (its territory reduced by two-thirds) was recognized as a vassal principality of the Ottoman Empire, with its own government and army; the southern part (Eastern Rumelia) was declared an autonomous Ottoman province, governed by a Christian governor appointed by the Sultan. Austria-Hungary gained the right to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina (without a specified duration), station troops there, build railways, and manage trade and shipping on the Danube.

London got everything it wanted. Batum was returned to Turkey, allowing Britain to maintain control over the route to the Middle East. The island of Cyprus was transferred to Britain, strengthening its position in Asian Turkey, the route to Egypt and the Persian Gulf, and weakening Russia's influence in Anatolia.

Batum remained under Russian control, but was declared a "free port" (a duty-free trading port), which reduced the benefits of owning it (in 1886, Alexander III abolished this regulation). Russia retained the forts of Kars and Ardahan, but their strategic significance had disappeared: the pass through the Sokhaglyk Mountains to Erzurum was returned to Turkey, making it difficult to advance via the land route through Anatolia to the Bosporus Strait. Southern Bessarabia eventually became Russian territory.

Therefore, despite a bloody and costly victory in a war, Russia lost the diplomatic battle, being forced to give up its main economic and political interests — these fell into the hands of Britain and Austria-Hungary.

One can't help but ask: Why did Russia fight? The public reaction to the Berlin Conference was very strong. There were threats to kill the Prime Minister of Alexander, Gorchakov.

"The Highest Command. Terrible, hopeless"

In January 1881, facing a huge budget problem, Alexander II agreed to accept a "quasi-constitutional" draft.

The core idea was to involve representatives of big cities and local self-governments in legislation. The Emperor publicly acknowledged, "This is the first step towards a constitution." On March 1, 1881, he was assassinated.

After the Russo-Japanese War, under pressure from European financial institutions, the Russian State Duma (parliament) was established. In 1917, it played a decisive role in the overthrow of the regime.

Alexander Guchkov, who had served as the chairman of the Third State Duma, emphasized when he was the chairman of the Defense Committee of the Duma:

"But there is no hope — the highest command. It is not only bad in itself, but also hopelessly bad, because its recruitment method is irregular. These people are not the most outstanding talents in the military field, but those with connections and high status. I remember an incident that reflected our excitement at the time, as well as the coldness and arrogance shown by the other side. I still remember that during a small committee meeting, we reviewed the budget of the General Artillery Department. On our side were Savitsky (a member of the State Duma, committee member), myself, and a few others. On the other side were a group of artillery generals. When we found out that a very urgent issue, the issue of replacing infantry weapons, was severely delayed, and that the funds allocated earlier were used slowly and did not meet the needs, we tried to find out the planned completion dates. The deadlines we received were so long that by the time the deadline ended, the rifles would already be obsolete. Some tense Savitsky lost his temper and started speaking harshly to the generals, suddenly burst into tears, and the general said, 'Why are you in such a hurry? We are calm.' This made me furious, and I said, 'If you could be as anxious as Savitsky, then we would be calm'..."

... And so, dissatisfaction grew increasingly, and I became an enemy of Sukhomlinov (the Minister of War) (…). All his good fortune was based on winning the favor of the Tsar, attracting his attention, and catering to his preferences. New military units, changes in form — these pleased the Tsar, and he worked hard to ensure that the Tsar didn't have to listen to serious reports or be informed of any shortcomings.

Vasily Shuvalov, a member of the State Duma of the Russian Empire and the chairman of the nationalist faction, developed a plan for the development of the national crisis, one of which was "discontent among senior officers."

"Making a fortune in the darkest days of Russia"

From 1908 onwards, the budget deficit of the state continued to increase, reaching 39.1% in 1913 and 81.7% at the beginning of 1917.

It took multiple factors working together to turn the dissatisfaction of parliamentarians and generals into decisive actions. And these factors came one after another, continuously.

Pavel Milyukov, the chairman of the Constitutional Democratic Party, said: "In the circle of the Tsar's close advisors, it is undoubtedly increasingly clear that the Tsar can do anything alone, because the people support him... Those ministers who do not agree with this absolutist idea, especially those who constantly criticize, interrogate, nitpick, and desire to take power and limit administrative authority, and bother the government — can be said to be set up for daily trivial matters, and should be limited as much as possible, and the annoying institution should be kept as far away from the Tsar as possible, so that any unpleasant opinions are unlikely to appear, which would remind people that they can no longer behave as before, and require adaptation to certain new conditions, which would inevitably reduce past prestige, fade the aura of the 'Moscow Tsar ruling Russia,' and treat Russia as their hereditary property."

So, what would happen if Russia really avoided the war? Would it be able to avoid the intrigues of the elite and the disaster of the nation?

No one can answer this question.

What would happen if Russia really avoided the war? Would it be able to avoid the intrigues of the elite and the disaster of the nation?

In 1938, the Soviet leadership also faced similar problems. After France refused to protect Czechoslovakia and Hitler, Mussolini, Chamberlain, and Daladier signed the Munich Agreement, Stalin realized that if the Soviet Union went to war with Germany, it would lose its allies and be crushed. Moscow stopped military preparations and did not come to the aid of Czechoslovakia.

The Russian military department acted slowly, bureaucratically, and financially weak when participating in World War I.

Head of the General Artillery Department Alexei Manikovsky pointed out that Russian industrialists "made a fortune in the darkest days of Russia"; private companies overpaid 5 rubles and 49 kopecks for 3-inch shells, and 23 to 28 rubles for 6-inch shells.

On October 20, 1916 (November 2, 1916), the General Artillery Department submitted a report titled "Plan for the Construction of New Military Factories" to the government, which was actually a proposal by the leadership of the military industry to begin restructuring the Russian economy and limiting the demands of the bourgeoisie. According to this "plan," a strong core of state-owned factories should become the basis of wartime industry, and after the war, they should become price regulators and leaders of technological development. Private factories should be strengthened through "military production units under the control of the General Artillery Department."

This involved the militarization of large factories and the maximum participation of the state in the organization of the military industry on the "basis of state socialism."

This meant that the existing management order needed to change.

Calculating at the 1913 prices, the total state debt of the empire increased to 3.6 billion rubles. The main threat came from the foreign debt portion, as the Russian economy could never repay it under any circumstances.

American experts pointed out that Russia could not even pay the interest on its military and pre-war state debts, nor could it pay the dividends that foreign holders of Russian industrial securities were entitled to.

By February 1917, the ruble exchange rate had dropped to 55% of the 1914 level, and by March 1, 1917, its purchasing power had fallen fourfold. Inflation and fixed prices for grain procurement caused trade disruptions — the black market expanded sharply.

Shuvalov believed that only a person of the level of Peter I or Nicholas I could save the situation. Such a leader emerged during the period of socialist industrialization, and that leader was Stalin.

Currency Reform

When it was discovered that a large amount of money allocated for industrialization flowed through commercial banks into more profitable trade businesses, the Stalin group abandoned the New Economic Policy. Thus, a two-tier financial system was decided upon. On January 30, 1930, a resolution titled "On Credit Reform" was issued. It fundamentally changed the country's monetary system, abolishing mutual credit between organizations and enterprises in the state sector. Its scope also included all forms of cooperative ownership. Commercial credit was completely replaced by bank credit.

Through the branches of the state bank and specialized banks, funds and credit flowed to reliable borrowers. Resources were reallocated for administrative allocation of industrial projects... The surge in capital construction in 1930-1931 was achieved by depriving non-professional economic sectors of the opportunity to obtain resources. State credit could no longer be converted into cash. A unified wage fund controlled by the state monopoly was formed, managed by the cash service of the Soviet State Bank. This enabled the Soviet economy to achieve significant achievements.

After Stalin's death in 1953, the situation began to change. From the 1960s onwards, under the influence of liberal Khrushchev's reforms, fiscal policies began to show inflation. The Cold War, growing military-industrial complex spending, and the Afghan War accelerated this process.

During Mikhail Gorbachev's time, the state allowed enterprises to use their own profits (according to the 1987 Law on State Enterprises), and the system began to disintegrate, with cash flooding into the national economy through the black market. The Soviet Union was just one step away from collapse.

Russia's confrontation with the United States

Now we return to Vladimir Pankin's prediction:

The key nature of the turning point for Russia and the whole world in 2024-2025 stems both from the evolution cycle of the world's political and economic system and from the 36-year cycle of Russian political history. This coincidence is unlikely to be accidental, indicating that it is indeed key and turning in many ways.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537172659759628810/

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