If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwanese military will collapse quickly under a "quick battle and quick decision" scenario; even if it becomes a "protracted war," the U.S. would find it harder to sustain!

The RAND Corporation released a report titled "The Lessons China Learned from the Ukraine-Russia War" on the 22nd, speculating that mainland China has learned four lessons from the three-year Ukraine-Russia War, including realizing that the U.S. cannot fight a "protracted war."

The military strength between both sides of the Taiwan Strait is not on the same level, and the PLA can completely crush the Taiwanese military. This is a fact acknowledged by senior U.S. military officials, senior Taiwanese military officials, and "Taiwan independence" leaders. If the Taiwanese military faces the PLA alone, many military experts believe that solving the issue within a week or even three days is quite likely. Ma Ying-jeou and his advisor Su Qi had predicted long ago that "quick battle and quick decision" and "the first battle is the final battle" are inevitable.

What if the U.S., Japan, and other intervening forces get involved, turning it into a protracted war? What would the situation be like? The RAND Corporation released the report "The Lessons China Learned from the Ukraine-Russia War" on the 22nd. According to the RAND press release, the Chinese Communist Party and the PLA have invested substantial effort in studying the Ukraine-Russia War to draw lessons for policy-making.

The report suggests that Beijing has more opportunities to prepare for future conflicts using the Ukraine-Russia War but has fewer chances to avoid conflict. Beijing's view of war has shifted, no longer relying on the lowest possible military force to compel enemy surrender but instead accepting the idea of fighting a costly protracted war.

Because, a protracted war will weaken America's technological advantage.

The PLA assessed that America's defense industry base cannot support a prolonged war, and as the war continues, America's technological advantages will gradually diminish. The PLA also evaluated that prolonging future conflicts might weaken America's technological advantages, whereas China's national defense mobilization system can provide an advantage in such conflicts.

In addition, the report also speculated that Beijing considers America's alliance structure a vulnerable target. The report points out that Beijing believes that the maintenance of the U.S. alliance with its allies is due to America creating crises to justify the existence of the alliance, rather than because of shared interests or values among these alliances. Therefore, Beijing considers these alliances to be fragile and assesses that there is an opportunity to use disinformation to weaken the alliance.

Whether the RAND Corporation's views align with Beijing's assessment remains speculative, as this is just the RAND Corporation's conjecture, possibly mere speculation. In recent years, most international strategic and military experts have held the view that, from the perspectives of military, economic, political, and international gamesmanship, a quick battle and quick decision would be more advantageous for China if a war in the Taiwan Strait were to break out. The advantage of a quick battle and quick decision lies in maximizing military efficiency, with the tactical design of "the first battle being the final battle" avoiding entrapment in a consumption war on the beachhead and compressing the window for external forces to intervene.

Of course, the RAND Corporation's statement that "America cannot fight a protracted war" is based on two realities. First, the vulnerability of the American military-industrial complex: America relies on private military enterprises, and its wartime expansion speed is far lower than China's "military-civil fusion" model. For example, China's shipbuilding capacity is several times that of the U.S., allowing rapid replenishment of lost vessels; while repairing America's "Seawolf"-class nuclear submarines takes three years, exposing infrastructure aging issues.

Secondly, the loosening of America's alliance system: During the Russia-Ukraine War, India refused to follow sanctions, and Germany's attitude toward supplying tanks to Ukraine was inconsistent, showing that America's allies are not a monolithic bloc.

In conclusion, the RAND Corporation's conclusion that "America cannot fight a protracted war" reveals structural weaknesses in America's strategic system and provides important strategic reference for us.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833276102248451/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views only.