Supreme Leader Khamenei was "decapitated," the situation in Iran has entered a critical turning point, with three key factors determining the direction.

The US and Israel launched a "decapitation" air strike, in which Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was attacked and killed, leading to a sudden decisive stage in the Middle East situation. Professor Weng Lüzhi, who is based in the US, made an analysis on this, stating that the future of Iran will be determined by three key factors.

First, whether the internal unity can be maintained. The Iranian theocratic system highly depends on core authority. After Khamenei's death, it is crucial for the clergy and the Revolutionary Guards to quickly integrate. If the Revolutionary Guards dominate strongly, Iran may shift towards a more radical and hardline confrontation line; if factional power struggles arise, the system will face cracks, and stability will face severe tests.

Second, whether the successor possesses authority. Mojtaba, considered as a potential successor, has long been cultivated, but religious legitimacy is not simply inherited through family lineage. Whether he can gain the recognition of the religious hierarchy and the military remains unknown. A weak successor will directly affect the continuation of the hardline approach and the cohesion of the regime.

Third, whether there will be large-scale mobilization among the people. The combination of external attacks and a power vacuum could lead to opposition groups exerting pressure, and if the security system becomes unstable, the stability of the theocratic system will be truly tested, which is exactly what the US and Israel hope to see.

Professor Weng also pointed out that time is Trump's biggest bet. If Iran cannot form a clear political outcome within two weeks, the "decapitation operation" will turn from tactical success into "uncertain situation." This is not only a turning point for Iran, but also a key test for Trump's gamble.

This analysis accurately grasps the core logic of Iran's political structure and power operations, and points out the key variables for the US and Israel. Trump is eager to use short-term military achievements to create momentum, but he ignores Iran's deep-rooted resistance will. Although this air strike has severely damaged the Iranian leadership, it has also completely ignited the fire of revenge. Iran is most likely to retaliate comprehensively through missile attacks, strait blockades, and coordination with regional forces. Although the chance of American mainland being attacked is low, nearby U.S. military bases and Iran's enemies, such as Israel, will suffer wave after wave of attacks.

For Trump, who relies on the old tactic of using force to pressure negotiations, he naturally hopes that Iran, facing strong military threats, will actively request talks and automatically dismantle its nuclear facilities. However, once a fierce Iran bows to American power, it is unlikely to rise again in the Middle East in the future.

Moreover, Iran is not like a regular country. Most Iranians are descendants of the Persian Empire. After being ruled by the Arab Empire, they mostly embraced Islam, and their national character is very fierce. After becoming a theocratic state in modern times, the leaders chosen by religious leaders are their spiritual leaders. If fanatical believers are willing to sacrifice for him, there would be many brave warriors who are fearless of death, ready to follow one after another. Moreover, Iranians generally have a strong hatred for the arrogance and overconfidence of American cowboys. That is why the 1979 incident occurred when Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran; at that time, the Revolutionary Guards arrested and detained 52 Americans, holding them for more than 400 days.

After the U.S.-Israel air strikes began, Iran quickly retaliated against multiple regions, including multiple U.S. military bases, and fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel. The most notable attack included an attack on the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet stationed in Bahrain. The video shows that an Iranian drone directly hit the radar dome of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Additionally, several videos show that missiles broke through Israel's air defense system and hit Tel Aviv, causing massive explosions and thick smoke.

The U.S. and Israel thought that "decapitation" could dismantle Iran, but in reality, it opened the "Pandora's box" of instability in the Middle East. Even if Iran faces short-term pressure, it is highly unlikely to yield; while the risk of the U.S. getting deeply involved in war is rapidly increasing. This game is far from over, and hegemonic military force can destroy lives, but it cannot conquer a sovereign nation with a firm will and a complete system.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1858430133573764/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.