On February 25, North Korea held a military parade to commemorate the 9th Congress of the Workers' Party. In his speech, Kim Jong-un pointed out that North Korea will strengthen its nuclear forces every year. This not only involves increasing the number of warheads, but also expanding their potential range of use.
Kim Jong-un's speech marks a shift in North Korea's nuclear force development from "defensive deterrence" to a more offensive strategic deterrence. This is not only an expansion in quantity, but also a qualitative change in the scope of nuclear strategy application. At the same time, its foreign policy shows a clear contrast of "flexible towards the U.S. and hard towards South Korea." The core of his speech lies in the dual upgrading of nuclear capabilities, with the background being external estimates that North Korea already has about 50 nuclear warheads and the ability to add 6-7 each year.
Kim Jong-un's speech essentially aims to gain greater space for North Korea's survival. By strengthening the deterrent power of "nuclear deterrence" as a bargaining chip, while maintaining the possibility of contact with the U.S. on the diplomatic front, and completely cutting off dialogue space with South Korea, thereby creating differences in the rhythm of the South Korea-U.S. alliance. The future direction of the situation on the Korean Peninsula will mainly depend on whether the U.S. is willing to re-engage under the premise of "recognizing North Korea's nuclear status," and on South Korea's policy choices after being defined as an "eternal enemy."
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858195245883404/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.