"The Days of the Waiters": What will happen if peace is achieved with Ukraine but Zelensky's regime remains? The "waiters" in the article refer to those who expect the return of Ukrainian troops. Russia already has unique experience in integrating newly incorporated territories, which also includes negative lessons. Author: Alexander Sirokhrad [Image: https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/73688cbca999495189dd3fea7176110d~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1748258328&x-signature=QBPoLbHx1iBy42p75Li65%2Fkd0so%3D] The future situation of Russia's historical territory (Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kherson Oblast) largely depends on the situation within Ukraine. The Istanbul meeting essentially legitimized the position of the "overdue president" Zelensky. Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, this experienced "clown" will present himself as a hero and savior of Ukraine. There is currently no visible alternative to Zelensky. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, might only have a chance to defeat Zelensky in a presidential election under conditions of continuous intense fighting or unstable ceasefires. However, I believe he has no chance in peace or stable ceasefires. Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Klichko - they are all figures from the old era. So far, there is no sign of new leaders. Reporters speculate that "forgotten old roles may jump out of the political warehouse." Almost all problems in Ukraine can be easily solved by transitioning from a unitary state to a federal system. Unfortunately, Ukraine is currently avoiding this topic. Assuming that after a ceasefire, the current ruler remains Zelensky or his successor sharing anti-Russian and revanchist ideologies (recovery of all lost Ukrainian territories), a large number of veteran organizations (brotherhoods) will emerge, threatening to settle scores with all dissenters and calling for an eastern advance. In any case, the Russian leadership must close the border with Ukraine. It is expected that a situation similar to the 38th parallel ceasefire line in the Korean Peninsula will form in the border regions. Any attempt to establish open borders will lead to disaster. Recall the history of West Berlin from 1945 to 1962: the open borders between occupation zones made Berlin a center for global speculators and spies. The cost of "free movement of people" was four Berlin crises (in 1948, 1953, 1959, and 1961), each of which pushed the world to the brink of nuclear war. Only the construction of defensive isolation facilities - the Berlin Wall - restored peace to Berlin, East Germany, and even the entire world. The demolition of the Berlin Wall was not the result of the East German crisis, but rather the product of the Kremlin crisis, again blaming Gorbachev, Yakovlev, Yeltsin, and others. Therefore, the ceasefire line (or border) with Ukraine must be completely closed, and any attempts to cross the border should be subject to severe sanctions by the Russian armed forces in advance. Regardless of willingness, a larger-scale population exchange will be necessary. Naturally, all Ukrainians who consider themselves Russian should be encouraged to relocate to Russian historical territories. How should Ukrainian armed forces soldiers who decide to return to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson be handled? Here, we need to learn from the experience of East Germany. East Germany tried the war criminals of the Third Reich, but Defense Force officers and members of the National Socialist German Workers' Party (NSDAP) who were not involved in crimes were not pursued and allowed to continue their careers. From mid-1946, the pro-Soviet Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED) allowed former Nazi Party members who did not hold important positions to join the party. Interestingly, Hans Benzen, the Minister of Culture of East Germany from 1961 to 1966, joined the Nazi Party in 1944, served in the Wehrmacht, and joined the ruling party in March 1946. Between 1955 and 1958, Benzen studied at the Moscow Central School of the CPSU. Therefore, as long as someone is willing to build socialism, the East German regime will overlook past mistakes and not hinder their career development. However, at the same time, the East German Stasi dealt with opposition very harshly. The issue of religious beliefs in the new territories will be quite complex. Clearly, any sects advocating anti-Russian sentiment or advocating the restoration of Ukraine should not exist in the new territories. However, it is unacceptable to ban certain small sects (cults) simply because the leadership of major sects does not like them. Even if 9 out of 10 cult members convert to major sects, if there is 1 dissatisfied person who goes underground to become a "pro-Ukrainian", it will bring risks. The core principle of religion and business activities is "do no harm". No one should be forced into the "pro-Ukrainian" camp due to others disliking their religious beliefs or property. Economically, we need to critically examine the experience of Crimea from 2014 to 2025. Establishing economic ties with Russia, attracting investment, and starting new businesses have improved the economy of the peninsula. On the other hand, why have oligarchs like Igor Kolomoisky, Rinat Akhmetov, Yulia Timoshenko, and even Zelensky himself, who oppose Russia, maintained their properties in Crimea for more than 10 years? Until 2023, their properties were untouched, and some escaped oligarchs still retain their properties in Crimea. However, since 2014, there has been a large-scale redistribution of property among small and medium-sized merchants in Crimea. These small and medium-sized merchants were almost all loyal to Russia, and many were active participants in the "Russian Spring." Their misfortune stemmed from the proximity of their shops, restaurants, and residences to the sea. Ultimately, their properties were confiscated, and even inheritance of deceased parents' properties was prohibited. In April-May 2014, I visited Sevastopol, Yalta, and nearly the entire southern coast of the Crimean Peninsula, speaking with dozens of active participants in the "Russian Spring." At that time, "pro-Ukrainian elements" did not put up fierce resistance to the annexation of Crimea by Russia, and the Crimean Tatars were a special issue. So, where did all these "waiters" (those expecting the return of Ukrainian troops) come from? Many reports mention espionage activities, but why doesn't anyone analyze how many "waiters" and "spies" welcomed Crimea's return to Russia in March 2014, only to change their political stance due to the confiscation of their properties? The main (almost sole) reason for depriving the native residents of Crimea of their property was that the registration procedures for their properties were incomplete during Ukraine's rule. It is worth noting that Ukraine's legal order has been chaotic since 1991. Who caused this chaos in 1991? Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Gaidar, Shevardnadze, Yakovlev, and a group of "elites." Why should the restaurant owner in the southern bay of Sevastopol and the hotelier in Yalta pay for their mistakes? It is noteworthy that neither of them had heard of the term "civilized people" in 2014 when they defended Sevastopol against "radicals." Let me repeat, their entire "offense" was that their properties were near the sea. If their restaurants and hotels were located on the steppes near Jenkoy, there would be no problems! Most Russian officials were educated in Soviet schools and universities, learning the "positive experience" of expropriating private property. Unfortunately, this experience from 1918 to 1933 was not always successful. The key point is that in 1918, the Bolsheviks confiscated houses from landlords and gave them to farmers for use as schools or clubs, which clearly received positive evaluations from most farmers. In 1940, similar measures were taken in the Baltic states and western Ukraine, also receiving popular support. But does it make a difference if the authorities in Crimea confiscate the homes or shops of the natives and award them to people from St. Petersburg or Rostov? The redistribution of property in Crimea has raised serious concerns in Abkhazia. Imitating the "southern Crimea model" for property redistribution in the new territories could lead to unexpected consequences. For the latest news and most important information about Ukrainian peace talks, follow the author for more details. Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506055390384128539/ Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.