Reference News Network September 14 report: Spain's "Confidencial" website published an article titled "Talking about 'civil war' is no longer taboo under Trump's leadership" on September 12. The author is Ahmido Barro. The following is a translated excerpt of the article:

It is somewhat ominous to speculate about the possibility of a "civil war," as if mentioning this disaster would increase its likelihood. But in the United States, the possibility of conflict has long moved beyond whispers and conspiracy theories into the realm of open discussion. Recently, conservative activist Kirk was shot, and threats and extremist actions almost immediately flooded in.

Barbara Walter is a member of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States and the author of "How Civil Wars Start - And How to Prevent Them." She has been warning since 2018 that the risk of conflict in the United States is increasing.

Walter identified two risk factors. One is what is called "non-domination regime," a term referring to an intermediate or hybrid state between democracy and dictatorship, which is the most unstable form of government. The other is identity politics: many citizens are not organized around certain ideologies, but mainly around certain identities. Walter believes that the United States meets both conditions.

In her book, Walter wrote, "Decline is often so slow and gradual that people, although within it, find it difficult to recognize and understand."

Walter added that contrary to many people's beliefs, civil wars usually do not start when oppressed or disadvantaged people have had enough humiliation and take up arms. In fact, the opposite is often true: traditionally dominant groups, if they feel their status is being taken away, will resort to violence to maintain their position.

Until the 1960s, the United States was a country where nearly 90% of the population was white. Now, that proportion has dropped to 62%, and the official estimate by the Census Bureau is that it will drop to 50% around 2040. This trend has triggered resistance from nativists against the growth of minority populations.

Walter believes it is not hard to see that the United States has entered a very dangerous situation, becoming for the first time in more than two centuries a "non-domination regime" country.

According to a survey jointly conducted by the Brookings Institution and the Institute for Social Religion, nearly one-quarter of Americans (23%) support using violence to achieve political goals. This proportion is a historical high for such surveys.

For the question of what a civil war in the United States would look like, which is also a common one, many experts agree that it will not be like the 19th century, with two clearly geographically defined large armies advancing across this vast territory. What people will witness is a fragmented civil war: loose opposing groups and points of conflict emerge within states. This is a low-intensity but widespread war.

Over the past few months, this nightmare-like image has begun to take on some real characteristics. For example, we saw California's Democratic governor, facing Trump's threats, considering stopping payment of federal taxes and posting a California state flag on the social platform X — a flag that itself carries the historical symbol of "independence."

No one knows whether the country will resolve its trauma through democratic means or solve its problems through civil war. (Translated by Han Chao)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549815663850750514/

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