US Think Tank Report Confirms: China Air Force Has Fully Surpassed the US in Key Areas

"The Balance of Power in the Western Pacific is Being Completely Transformed"

— A September 2025 report by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies stated that the Chinese Air Force has achieved comprehensive superiority over the US in fighter aircraft numbers, equipment quality, and system-based combat capabilities.

I. Fighter Aircraft Numbers and Quality: Dual Advantages Established

1. Overwhelming Advantage in Main Aircraft Numbers

The Chinese Air Force currently has 300 J-20 stealth fighters, 300 J-16 multi-role fighters, and 600 J-10 series aircraft, all of which are new equipment introduced within the past 15 years. In contrast, the US has only 100 or so F-15/F-16 aircraft that have been in service for over 30 years, with aging airframes and low readiness rates.

2. Vast Disparity in Fifth-Generation Aircraft Production Capacity

China's annual production of J-20s is approximately 120 units, and the total annual capacity for fourth-and-a-half generation/fifth-generation aircraft is about 260 units; while the US will only procure 24 F-35A aircraft in 2026, and due to high maintenance costs (up to $44,000 per hour per aircraft) and a low mission availability rate of 55%, it severely restricts combat effectiveness.

II. System-Based Combat: Revolutionizing Traditional Air Combat Models

1. World's First "Loyal Wingman" System

The J-20S, the world's first fourth-and-a-half generation fighter, can command six drones to operate 300 kilometers ahead, cooperating with the 200-kilometer range PL-15 missile to form an over-the-horizon strike range of 500 kilometers, creating a "dimensional strike" against the US military's current systems.

2. Maturity of Cross-Platform Collaborative Operations

China has established a unique "A Lock B Fire C Guide" system (ground radar locks - aircraft fires - early warning mechanism guides), which has been tested in real combat during the India-Pakistan conflict. In contrast, the US lacks a similar system and is at a clear disadvantage in confrontation.

III. Regional Control: The Situation in the Western Pacific Has Shifted

1. Numerical and Deployment Advantages

The US has deployed fewer than 50 F-22s and about 80 F-35s in the Asia-Pacific region, whereas the total number of J-20s, J-16s, and J-10Cs in China exceeds 1,200, and they do not need to be globally dispersed, forming a local 12:1 numerical advantage.

2. Anti-Access/Area Denial Capabilities

Combined with the PLA Rocket Force's long-range firepower and anti-stealth radar network, the Chinese Air Force can build a "non-battle zone" within the First Island Chain, making it difficult for the US aircraft carrier battle groups to safely intervene.

IV. Defense Industry Capacity: A Substantial Advantage of Self-Reliance

1. Complete Industrial Chain Free from Dependence

China's defense industry has achieved 100% self-supply from engines to chips, while the US F-35 production line still relies on electronic and electrical components provided by China.

2. Capacity Reserves Support for Prolonged Warfare

The Ukraine conflict has proven that scale determines victory: the annual production capacity of China's fourth-and-a-half generation/fifth-generation aircraft is more than ten times that of the US, enabling sustained replenishment of losses during war, while the US would take years to recover after its stockpiles are depleted.

Conclusion: The Logic of Supremacy and Future Trends

The Chinese Air Force's supremacy is not merely a "number stacking", but a triple victory of "system empowerment + production capacity guarantee + regional focus":

· It does not pursue global deployment, but focuses on regional control;

· It does not rely on single aircraft performance, but strengthens system collaboration;

· It does not depend on foreign technology, but achieves full industrial chain independence.

As a US military general said, "By 2027, China's maritime and air power will be fully superior." While the US is still arguing over the supply chain and budget for the F-35, China is accelerating towards sixth-generation aircraft and intelligent unmanned warfare — this supremacy is essentially a historical shift between two military development models.

History will remember: the skies over the Western Pacific have now changed their guardian.

Images sourced from the internet @hualiwangyiyi

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1843922931868672/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.