South Korean media: How long can South Korea's technical advantages in memory semiconductors be maintained as China makes rapid progress?

On April 22, the South Korean media "Business Post" published an article stating that while the U.S. is strengthening its regulation on China's semiconductors, China is actually accelerating the improvement of its own memory semiconductor supply chain and technological capabilities.

China is rapidly enhancing its technological independence in semiconductor materials, components, equipment, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and general memory such as DRAM and NAND flash. Therefore, it is observed that the technological gap with South Korean memory semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will quickly narrow.

Analysts say that the U.S. restrictions on China's semiconductors are actually driving China to establish its own semiconductor supply chain.

Xin-Kailai, a Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturer, recently announced plans to launch advanced semiconductor process key equipment, "lithography machines," by 2026.

Lithography equipment is the process equipment used to draw circuit patterns from semiconductor design diagrams onto silicon wafers, which is the core equipment of semiconductor manufacturing.

Xin-Kailai has set the goal of replacing all imported semiconductor lithography equipment with its own products. Currently, only ASML of the Netherlands can produce extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, but due to U.S. semiconductor export restrictions, China cannot import such equipment.

EUV equipment is used for ultra-fine circuits below 14 nanometers in general DRAM processes and advanced micro-fabrication processes below 5 nanometers in foundries. Without EUV equipment, it is impossible to manufacture the latest fine nanometer process semiconductors.

Xin-Kailai's goal is to bridge at least decades of technological gaps, which is expected to have significant impacts on the global semiconductor industry. It is analyzed that "Xin-Kailai's influence may reach the same level as China's DeepSeek or Huawei's 7-nanometer semiconductors."

Changxin Memory, a Chinese memory semiconductor company, is actively developing HBM, and there are reports that the second-generation HBM2 has already started mass production, about one year earlier than the originally planned 2026 mass production plan.

SK Hynix developed HBM2 in 2016, HBM2E in 2019, HBM3 in 2021, and HBM3E in 2023. This year, they also released samples of the sixth-generation HBM4, showing a nine-year technological gap compared to Changxin Memory.

However, Changxin Memory's catching-up speed is very rapid. It is said that the company has been developing HBM for more than two years. Therefore, it is observed that the development speed of Changxin Memory's next-generation third-generation HBM will be much faster than that of SK Hynix or Samsung Electronics.

Professor Baek Ryeon of Hanyang University predicted in analyzing HBM research trends, "The gap between South Korea and China in memory semiconductor technology may be reduced from around 10 years to within a few years."

In addition, Tongfu Microelectronics, the third-largest semiconductor company in China, has successfully developed HBM2.

Analysis suggests that U.S. semiconductor regulations play a major role in China's accelerated development of semiconductor technology.

The report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) explains, "U.S. semiconductor export controls promote China's technological independence and provide opportunities for China to further strengthen domestic semiconductor production."

It is already assessed that China leads South Korea in NAND flash technology. Samsung Electronics has decided to use China Yangtze Memory Technology Co., Ltd.'s "hybrid bonding" technology patent in its 10th generation NAND flash products.

Vertical stacked NAND flash memory is crucial, and hybrid bonding is essential for producing 400-layer NAND.

A South Korean industry insider said, "Due to China's rapid enhancement of storage semiconductor technology capabilities in the short term, it will be difficult for South Korea to maintain a super lead in the long run. China will not need 10 years to reach South Korea's technological level."

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830091582200905/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views.