The contest for Trump's successor has lost all suspense, with Rubio declaring loyalty to Vance and fully supporting his bid for the presidency.

On January 19 local time, a rare scene unfolded in the U.S. political circle.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly stated that if Vice President Vance ran for president in 2028, he would be "the first to stand up and support him."

This statement effectively ended the contest for Trump's successor. Rubio's declaration was extremely rare in the American political landscape. Politicians typically attack each other and undermine their rivals for personal advancement.

Rubio's "white flag of surrender" is both a rare act of courtesy in Washington politics and an unusual form of submission—Rubio, the biggest rival within the party, bowed first, officially announcing that the legacy of the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement has been handed over by Trump to Vance.

In fact, as early as August 2025, Trump had already clearly stated at a public event at the White House: "Vance is most likely to be my successor." He even proposed that Vance and Rubio run together, saying, "This combination would be unstoppable."

Now, Rubio stepping back into a secondary role confirms Trump's strategy and highlights a fundamental reality judgment.

To the MAGA base, Rubio is merely "a bureaucratic chief," a mix of establishment, neoconservative, and Tea Party remnants, lacking grassroots appeal and the ability to deliver a disruptive narrative.

He can lead the State Department and plan military interventions against Venezuela, but he cannot carry the MAGA banner. In Republican polls, Rubio has only 9% party support, which is far from challenging Vance’s over 54% support rate.

Vance's rise is the most successful political deification project of the Trump era. From author of "Hillbilly Elegy," to a Silicon Valley right-wing darling, and then to the vice president of the United States, he perfectly blends the dual identities of "Rust Belt representative" and "elitist critic."

He systematically rejects globalization, claiming that "manufacturing and design are inseparable" and that "cheap labor is a drug suppressing innovation," a rhetoric that precisely targets the economic anxieties and cultural resentments of MAGA voters.

At the same time, he is adept at political mobilization—attributing the complex failures of ordinary Americans to the betrayal of "liberal elites," providing moral legitimacy and emotional belonging for his supporters.

From Trump's perspective, Vance is not only a loyal executor but also an ideal successor who can institutionalize the "winning" narrative.

However, Vance's "popular consensus" is limited to within the Republican Party. Looking nationally, his image is堪称 disaster. His appearance has been mocked as "a clown doll," with no charm whatsoever.

His beard and eyeliner cannot hide his "fat guy" shortcomings. His wife, Uma, is of Indian descent, which fits the Democratic Party's diversity narrative, but it raises concerns among the core MAGA circle.

Another important point is that he once fiercely criticized Trump, but now has become his "most loyal deputy," which smells strongly of opportunism.

Moreover, historical data is not optimistic: there have been 48 vice presidents in U.S. history, 14 of whom eventually became president.

Of these 14, 9 became president due to the death of the sitting president and took over immediately.

Only five became president through election, including Biden.

Among the 12 Republican vice presidents and candidates who later ran for president, only three won their party's primary. Whether in the Republican or Democratic Party, vice presidents rarely end up in the White House, often serving as transitional figures.

If Vance lacks significant achievements and favorable circumstances, he may face the fate of Pence. Meanwhile, the Democrats have already sensed an opportunity.

California Governor Gavin Newsom is quietly positioning himself with an image of a "blond, blue-eyed Aryan elite." His family photo has been jokingly called "Nazi propaganda," yet it恰恰 fits the white middle-class imagination of "traditional America."

Although Newsom's policies are left-leaning, his appearance, background, and media appeal could create a "home invasion" effect on some Republican white base voters.

Especially among white women and suburban voters, Newsom's appeal far exceeds that of Vance. If the U.S. economy weakens in 2028, moderate voters might turn to a "respectable alternative" rather than embrace a "fat guy revolutionary."

Ultimately, the 2028 election is not about candidates, but a national referendum on economic performance. If Trump can keep inflation under control, stabilize employment, and curb immigration, fulfilling the promise of "MAGA 2.0," Vance can benefit from the "Reagan passing the torch to Bush" momentum, making it difficult for the Democrats, even with Newsom, to challenge.

Conversely, if the U.S. economy crashes and social divisions worsen, Vance, as the second-highest-ranking official in the White House, will inevitably become a scapegoat.

At that time, pragmatic figures like DeSantis within the Republican Party may return, and the Democrats need only to put forward a "non-faulty" moderate candidate to capture the votes of disaffected voters.

Rubio's loyalty to Vance has ended internal Republican infighting, but it also exposed the deep flaws of the MAGA movement: it needs a "purified strong man" who can inherit Trump's will while transcending his controversies.

Vance being placed on a pedestal is not because he is perfect, but because there is currently no one else in Trump's camp who can replace him. When there are no great generals, even Liao Hua becomes a vanguard.

However, statues are easy to sculpt, but hearts are hard to predict. As the 2028 election day approaches, voters will remember not the oaths of loyalty, but the price of bread and the state of public safety.

Whether Vance can rise from being "Trump's proxy" to becoming the 48th U.S. president and the next occupant of the White House, the final answer is certainly not decided in the White House chambers, but presented on the supermarket shelves and factory production lines across America.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7597277010209096232/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.