Modi has been very busy recently as he has been consecutively calling foreign leaders to probe the international community's response to the India-Pakistan conflict.

Based on the current known information, after the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, the actions taken by the Indian side are quite intriguing. They have shown no intention of meeting Pakistan halfway to ease the situation; instead, they seem to be thinking about how to "take preemptive action."

[Modi talking with multiple foreign leaders]

Since canceling his overseas trip and rushing back to take charge from the central government a few days ago, Modi has already called more than ten foreign leaders.

Regarding what Modi discussed in these calls, the Indian side is being tight-lipped, and at the same time, they have summoned representatives from various embassies to the Foreign Ministry for "briefings."

Following this series of actions, all parties feel something is amiss. After an assessment, it is believed that the Modi government may be looking for reasons to justify military action against Pakistan. Beforehand, India needs to know the possible reaction of the international community.

We all know that after the large-scale attack incident in the Indian-controlled Kashmir, India accused Pakistan of being the "mastermind," but they have yet to present substantial evidence.

This can only mean two possibilities: either the Indian side is still conducting a deeper investigation, or during this crisis, India once again demonstrated the speculative mentality at the national level, meaning they want to take bolder actions while taking advantage of the turmoil in the international geopolitical landscape without worrying too much about "international opinion."

Six years ago, when India and Pakistan had an air battle in Kashmir, the Modi government suffered a heavy loss. Not only were their aircraft shot down, but the pilot was also captured. The Indian side has wanted to regain the upper hand for quite some time.

However, the situation this time is far too serious. The animosity between India and Pakistan grows thicker day by day, and both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario. Any escalation by either side could trigger a chain reaction.

[Even The New York Times noticed that India might take preemptive action]

In recent days, small-scale clashes have occurred between the security forces of the two countries. In addition, India has suspended its water resources agreement with Pakistan, cutting off upstream water flow to artificially create floods, which have submerged the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region, threatening irrigation systems and power supply systems.

As a result, Pakistan had to issue an ultimatum, stating that if India continues to meddle with water resources, Pakistan will retaliate with military action.

Overall, it is clear that the Modi government is using its identity as a victim of terrorism to exert enormous security pressure on neighboring countries.

To put it bluntly, Modi is taking advantage of the support from various countries for India's fight against terrorism and unilaterally interpreting it as tacit approval for action against Pakistan.

[Countries support India's fight against terrorism, while the Modi government plans to capitalize on it]

No wonder the Pakistan Ministry of Defense has an ominous feeling about the current situation and believes that India may escalate tensions at any time.

However, not everyone agrees with India's strong retaliation against Pakistan. Even in closed-door diplomatic meetings, the Indian side cannot provide concrete evidence, and the eagerness to accuse Pakistan now clearly stems from strong political motives.

A diplomat privately questioned: Is it wise for the Modi government to adopt a confrontational stance with neighboring countries based solely on habitual thinking of the India-Pakistan rivalry?

Looking back, after the attack incidents in the Indian-controlled Kashmir in 2016 and 2019, India has always retaliated against Pakistan. This time, it will likely follow the same pattern.

However, things are different now compared to before. Back then, both India and Pakistan were relatively restrained, and the negative impacts were relatively controllable, so they did not escalate into full-scale conflicts. Does India still have such self-control now?

[It seems India has no awareness of controlling the situation]

Speaking of this, one must mention that after the attack incident in the Indian-controlled Kashmir in 2019, when Trump was still the U.S. president, he expressed support for India.

As a result, the Modi government directly launched a cross-border airstrike against Pakistan. The United States had to increase diplomatic pressure on India, urging Modi to "exercise restraint" because the U.S. maintains close military relations with Pakistan. If India and Pakistan were to engage in a major conflict, it would also cause headaches for the U.S.

Therefore, this time around, the U.S. acted much more tactfully. After bragging about his personal ties with the leaders of India and Pakistan, Trump said that this issue should be left to the two countries to resolve themselves.

After all, the U.S. now has to worry about the Israeli-Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and it simply doesn't have the time to deal with the long-standing Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan, which provides no help for Trump's "America First" agenda.

Additionally, the attack incident in the Indian-controlled Kashmir this time occurred for the first time since Modi's reforms.

There is an important logic here: before Modi's reforms, the security situation in the Indian-controlled Kashmir was tense. However, after the reforms, there was no improvement in the situation.

[Modi's radical policies are essentially planting landmines for the Kashmir issue]

Doesn't this prove that Modi's radical policies of abolishing the autonomy of the Indian-controlled Kashmir and changing the local population structure have yielded no results over the past few years?

Modi's third term has not even reached a year, and if he handles this issue poorly, it will leave him with a very poor historical evaluation.

Therefore, Modi must shift the blame to Pakistan, accusing it of plotting "cross-border terrorism." However, not all problems can be solved by shifting the blame.

From this perspective, the Modi government's current tough rhetoric and actions against Pakistan are less about giving the domestic public an explanation and more about maintaining its own face. He absolutely cannot admit that his approach to handling the Kashmir issue from the beginning was essentially planting landmines for India and even the India-Pakistan relationship.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498683176286568975/

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