Many people think that China's current series of measures are "countermeasures" against the previous U.S. technological blockade against China. If you think this way, it is to underestimate us too much.
Regarding China's current export control over rare earths, high-energy-density lithium batteries, and super-hard materials, even extending extraterritorial jurisdiction, the core purpose is to restrict the development of the U.S. high-tech industry, especially artificial intelligence and chip industries. Simply put, for China, this is not a simple "you hit me once, I hit you back" trade friction, but a carefully considered strategic layout concerning the dominance of the next industrial revolution.
Do not think that China's advantage is only in the reserves of rare earth ore. More importantly, it lies in the complete refining and separation industry chain with extremely high technical barriers, which is unique globally. There is no mistake. Even if other countries mine rare earths, they can only send them to China for purification and separation. Any product containing 0.1% rare earths must apply to China for export to the U.S. From jet engine turbines, precision-guided weapons, to electric vehicle motors, high-performance permanent magnets, and our focus on chip manufacturing, elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, and gadolinium in rare earths are indispensable key materials. In the semiconductor field, rare earth materials are used in multiple key processes such as etching, polishing, and deposition of chips, which are the basis for ensuring chip performance and yield.
You see, we have explained clearly. If you want to produce 14nm or smaller logic chips, or 256 layers or more storage chips, you need to apply for Chinese rare earths, and we will carefully review and approve each one individually.
This directly locks the lifeline of U.S. artificial intelligence. The AI industry cannot do without two hands. One hand is AI chips, which through thousands of AI chip clusters, train the large models we need. The other hand is high-end storage. When AI chips process massive data, they generate astonishing intermediate data, which needs to be quickly stored on the nearest "workbench"—that is high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-speed solid-state drives. Producing 256-layer or more 3D NAND flash memory chips is also a major consumer of rare earths. Once the supply of this "hand" becomes slow or unstable, the efficiency of AI computing power will be severely affected, or even face the situation of "a skilled cook cannot cook without rice."
The "countermeasure" that the United States sees is a necessary response after China has been subjected to unjust technological suppression. This is "building a road openly," a reasonable means of confrontation on the surface. However, the real strategic intention of "stealthily passing through the storehouse" lies in proactively shaping the future competitive landscape. Artificial intelligence, as the core engine of the fourth industrial revolution, whoever gains and maintains the initiative in this competition can win the commanding height of global political, economic, and military structures for the next several decades, as well as the huge economic cake of tens of trillions of dollars. Looking back at history, each industrial revolution has reshaped world hegemony: the steam era made Britain the "empire where the sun never sets"; the internal combustion engine and electrical era propelled the United States and Germany to the center of the world stage; the computer and information age consolidated America's global leadership for decades. Now, the fourth industrial revolution, centered on intelligent technology, is a direct showdown between China and the United States.
Therefore, what China is doing this time is to delay the development speed of the U.S. high-tech industry by leveraging its absolute advantage in the entire rare earth industry chain. Besides rare earths, the purpose of high-energy-density lithium batteries is the same.
High-energy-density lithium batteries are the core of grid energy storage systems. The U.S. electricity has reached its limit, and the risk of regional power outages is increasing. At the same time, the U.S. is determined to lead the next round of technological revolution, vigorously developing artificial intelligence, high-end chip manufacturing, and data centers. These industries are not only "electricity hogs," but also require stable, continuous, and precise power supply—any momentary voltage fluctuation could cause billions of calculation errors or the scrapping of precision manufacturing steps. Their power quality requirements far exceed ordinary commercial demands.
However, the U.S. faces a structural dilemma that China does not have: it cannot build a nationwide "power expressway"—a ultra-high-voltage transmission network like China to efficiently and intelligently allocate power across regions. The U.S. power grid system is outdated, and each state has strong autonomy, making it difficult to form a unified plan and construction, leading to difficulties in "transferring electricity from west to east" or "transferring electricity from north to south." Therefore, when local power generation capacity is insufficient, they cannot easily call for power "rainfall" from energy bases thousands of kilometers away like China. It is under this dilemma that distributed, modular energy storage systems, especially energy storage power stations with high-energy-density lithium batteries as the core, have become the only realistic solution to the urgent problem. Musk also believes that the only way for the U.S. to develop the AI industry is to deploy energy storage systems.
If you want to develop, you must ask China first. China monopolizes more than 95% of the global lithium battery positive and negative electrode materials. 65% of the U.S. energy storage lithium batteries are imported from China. As for the rest, whether it is domestic factories or imports from other countries, they all need to use China's positive and negative electrode materials.
At this point, the boomerang hits the U.S. The U.S. likes to implement extraterritorial jurisdiction. Then China will also use extraterritorial jurisdiction on the U.S. Without high-tech industries, especially artificial intelligence, the U.S. economy will lose its core growth engine. For the U.S., this is a fatal crisis.
What China has done now greatly affects the development of the U.S. high-tech industry. You see, the U.S. is already anxious, but it is too early for the U.S. to get anxious. We haven't finished playing our cards yet.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561475057529225791/
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