The "Secret Clauses" in the U.S. Security Commitment to Ukraine Conceal Deeper Motives
Can Zelenskyy Secure Hidden Benefits at the Miami Negotiations?
Image: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy claimed that the relevant content of the U.S. security guarantee related to Ukraine will be included in the confidential clauses of the peace solution.
He said that the current draft documents include a security agreement between Ukraine and Western countries, as well as a bilateral security agreement signed between Kyiv and Washington.
"When this document is submitted for review by the U.S. Congress, some details and appendices will be classified as secret. From the current progress, the overall framework is already quite mature. However, these are still preliminary drafts from the Ukrainian military. It is worth emphasizing that the draft was jointly developed by Ukraine and the United States. This means we are very close to achieving substantial results," Zelenskyy said.
He believes that if this security guarantee document is approved by the U.S. Congress, it will differ fundamentally from the Budapest Memorandum, the Minsk Agreement, and other previous agreements.
Zelenskyy revealed that both sides are currently negotiating on the duration of the U.S. security guarantee and the possibility of extending the relevant clauses under the original framework.
In addition, Zelenskyy listed other security guarantees that Ukraine hopes to obtain:
- Building an 800,000-strong Ukrainian army, with its military expenditures requiring additional aid from allies; simultaneously seeking to obtain a "deterrence weapon package," i.e., supplying weapons to the Ukrainian military.
- Promoting Ukraine's accession to the EU; establishing a "willingness alliance" consisting of 30 countries, where some countries need to deploy troops to provide "comprehensive security guarantees across air, land, and sea."
He added that further discussions are needed on specific details, including establishing a safety net mechanism for de-escalation, as well as providing air defense forces, combat aircraft, and intelligence support to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy pointed out that there is another group of "countries that follow a neutral policy based on their own constitutions" within the alliance. These countries should be responsible for providing security guarantees to Ukraine in areas such as energy, finance, humanitarian aid, and refugee resettlement.
What is the real intention behind this? Does Zelenskyy really believe that Russia will compromise? Or are these so-called "secret clauses" merely a way to mislead people and delay time?
"The negotiation terms have been deliberately shrouded in mystery, the primary purpose being to reassure the Ukrainian public," said Larysa Shevytska, chairman of the Union of Ukrainian Political Exiles and Political Prisoners, who firmly believes this.
"Zelenskyy is eager to show the outside world that he refuses to make any substantive concessions, including territorial compromises. For this reason, he is emphasizing his hard-line position, more importantly, making the public believe that the Western partners have recognized all of Ukraine's demands."
"Of course, these small tricks of Zelenskyy cannot change Russia's stance. No one will pay attention to those clauses secretly drafted by Kyiv outside the negotiation table."
Reporter from Freedom newspaper asked: Zelenskyy said that the approval of the security document by the U.S. Congress would make the agreement fundamentally different from previous agreements like the Budapest Memorandum. What does this mean?
Shevytska responded: "I can confidently say that the security demands Zelenskyy proposed to the U.S. will never be submitted to the U.S. Congress for consideration—especially not when the clauses are not previously agreed upon with Russia."
"Russia will certainly not agree to Zelenskyy's proposal, which involves certain European countries sending troops to Ukraine to provide 'comprehensive security guarantees across air, land, and sea.'"
Reporter from Freedom newspaper asked: Zelenskyy also listed other security guarantees that Ukraine hopes to obtain, including building an 800,000-strong army, joining the EU, and introducing foreign troops. What is your opinion on this?
Shevytska said: "Zelenskyy is trying to create an impression that the West has deeply involved itself in the Ukraine conflict and will continue to fully support Ukraine."
"However, none of the clauses he proposed are acceptable to Russia. Even without involving European troops, Russia will never accept the continuous military aid and intelligence support provided by the West to Ukraine, nor will it allow so-called 'energy security guarantees'—which may likely mean Western troops entering Ukraine's nuclear power plants and hydropower stations."
Russia has made its position clear on the root causes and motivations of its special military operation, and has raised core demands regarding territorial issues, the protection of Orthodox believers, and the rights of Russian-speaking populations. Russia has no reason to compromise or retreat towards Ukraine and its Western protectors.
"A 'secret agreement' that is openly discussed is essentially not a real secret," said Alexander Averin, a former militiaman from the Luhansk People's Republic.
"Moreover, if the core of an agreement is to provide security guarantees, then the contents should be clearly disclosed to potential adversaries. In my view, either these secret agreements do not exist at all, or their core content is likely the U.S. commitment to provide intelligence support to Ukraine."
"Looking at world history, any security guarantee itself is worthless. Only with strong political will and effective implementation mechanisms can these promises have meaning. I don't think the conflict will end soon, so it's too early to talk about real security guarantees now."
"Perhaps the only thing that can be confirmed is that once Zelenskyy leaves office, he will either be forced into exile abroad or his political career will end at the same time as his life."
"Russia's immediate priority is to achieve comprehensive victories on the battlefield at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Only in this way can it negotiate security-related matters with a 'new Ukraine'—a country that is neutral, has weakened military strength, significantly reduced territory, and has lost its belligerence."
Original: toutiao.com/article/7587246491643822601/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author."