Reference News, July 15 report: On July 4, US President Trump signed a budget reconciliation bill that fundamentally weakens US climate policy. Just hours later, leaders of emerging market countries gathered in Rio de Janeiro to attend the BRICS Leaders' Meeting - advancing climate action was one of their top priorities. A few days earlier, the EU executive body announced a new 2040 emissions reduction target, which is more ambitious than the previous one.

This triptych highlights a new situation. The United States has abandoned its central position in the climate ecosystem - a position that will be difficult to reclaim given its long-term prioritization of fossil fuel development. While other countries continue to strive for carbon reduction, the US is moving in the opposite direction alone.

From a purely emissions reduction perspective, the persistence of major global participants - from China to the EU - is encouraging. However, this is not just about emissions reduction. The US withdrawal from climate action is creating a new geopolitical landscape, the consequences of which are not yet fully clear. These changes in the situation will affect energy and clean technology markets for decades to come.

A few years ago, climate advocates worried that any degree of US retreat could lead to the collapse of global climate action. This logic argued that if the US did not engage in climate action, how would other countries do so? But the US no longer tries to take the lead. In this context, other countries do not want to follow the US. The geopolitical division that had begun before Trump's second term and intensified since January of this year has also promoted global clean energy development. As countries strive to reduce their dependence on oil and gas imports, renewable energy has become an economically viable domestic energy source.

In fact, the US abandoning global climate efforts has opened the way for other countries, especially China. China has developed the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturing industry and has become the world's leading auto exporter in a short period of time - producing high-quality cars at costs that American and European competitors cannot match. China remains undeniably the leader in the manufacturing of renewable energy technologies. According to data from the International Energy Agency in 2023, China controls at least 60% of the global solar panel, wind turbine system, and battery manufacturing capacity. Crucially, the cost of China's battery technology continues to decline.

With its manufacturing dominance, China will seek to sell these products in an increasing number of global markets. Considering their low cost, we expect high market acceptance. This means economic ties between China and almost all countries from Europe to Asia will become closer.

In Trump's budget bill, some technologies are in a slightly better position than others, such as carbon capture. However, the success of carbon capture in the budget bill further highlights the divergence between the US and other countries around the world. As other countries turn to renewable energy technologies, one of the few pathways the US is pushing for decarbonization relies on fossil fuels.

All of this means that the US now takes a stance on energy and climate issues that is completely different from that of other countries. As the market changes, it will be difficult for the US to return to its original track even if there is a change of government in the future. (Translated by Zheng Guoyi)

This article was published by the US magazine Time on July 12, with the original title "The Axis of Global Climate Leadership Is Changing", written by Justin Vowin.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7527125350485148200/

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