At the last moment, Trump backed down and dared not give the order to start a war.

According to CNN citing sources, former U.S. President Trump was extremely worried about being involved in overseas military conflicts, especially regarding the potential involvement of the United States in the current conflict between Israel and Iran.

This message was later confirmed and quoted by media outlets such as Al Jazeera, further indicating that Trump is attempting to maintain a balance between his "anti-war" stance and real-world pressures.

The main reasons for Trump's concerns are as follows:

Firstly, the pressure from domestic politics.

The "MAGA" base that Trump relies on has shown obvious divisions in this Middle East situation; non-interventionists like Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. strongly oppose getting involved in the war, but some hawkish advisors advocate taking action against Iran.

Moreover, Trump once used the slogan "America First" to build an image of himself as a "peaceful" leader. If he were to go to war, his credibility would be undermined, making it difficult for him to explain within the country.

Secondly, the complexity of the Middle Eastern situation itself. The U.S. military has dispatched a carrier strike group to the region. Once a conflict occurs, American troops are likely to be drawn in first. Iran also possesses various retaliation methods such as long-range missiles, drones, and cyberattacks, which could make the situation difficult to control if it escalates.

In addition, Trump prefers to use military deterrence to gain negotiation leverage.

His current military deployment seems more aimed at creating negotiation pressure rather than preparing for actual combat.

Furthermore, Trump also needs to face legal constraints from Congress on the domestic political front.

Democrats have proposed a bill requiring congressional authorization before going to war, and any unauthorized military action could trigger backlash in both legal and public opinion terms.

In fact, the true博弈is not within the United States but between the pro-Israel camp and the America First camp, with Israel being the decisive factor that could change Trump's stance.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1835320917127232/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views.