For several decades, the United States has dominated the global seas with its powerful navy, particularly in the fields of aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, maintaining an absolute technological and numerical advantage. However, recent security analyses and research reports have sent a thought-provoking signal: the Chinese military's submarine capabilities are rapidly rising and may surpass the United States in the near future, becoming a potential maritime overlord in the deep sea.
According to data from the U.S. Congressional Research Service and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the size of China's naval fleet has already exceeded that of the United States, making it the world's largest maritime power. Although the United States still holds an advantage in total tonnage and technical level of ships, China's rapid progress in the submarine field is particularly notable.
Currently, the United States has 71 fully nuclear-powered submarines, while China has 60 submarines, of which only 12 are nuclear-powered. However, this numerical gap is rapidly narrowing. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, by 2030, China's submarine force is expected to increase to 80, with nearly 20 possibly being nuclear-powered submarines. At the same time, the number of U.S. submarines is expected to drop to 47 by the end of this century due to the retirement of old submarines and declining shipbuilding capacity. This "shift in balance" means that by 2030, China will surpass the United States in the number of submarines, with an increasing lead.
In addition to the growth in numbers, China has also made significant progress in submarine technology. Early Chinese nuclear submarines, such as the 091 "Han" class, were known for their loud noise and slow speed. However, with assistance from Russia, the new 093 "Shang" class nuclear submarines have seen significant improvements in noise reduction and combat capability.
More notably, the 095 and 096 class nuclear submarines currently under development. According to analysis, these new submarines will have capabilities comparable to those of U.S. and Russian counterparts, including quieter operation, faster speed, and the ability to carry vertical launch cruise missiles. This technological leap will make Chinese submarines harder to track in future battlefields and provide stronger long-range strike capabilities. In addition, China has widely applied air-independent propulsion (AIP) technology in conventional submarines, allowing them to stay underwater for longer periods, further enhancing their operational effectiveness.
Although the United States has more advanced nuclear submarines, it faces unique challenges when deploying them near China's coast.
First, the coastal areas of China are relatively shallow, and the seabed topography is complex. Nuclear submarines, which are large in size, require a certain depth to maneuver safely and efficiently. In contrast, China has a large number of conventional submarines suitable for operations in shallow waters, which can better conceal and ambush in complex coastal terrain.
Second, China's anti-submarine network is becoming increasingly complete. The People's Liberation Army is using underwater sonar arrays, unmanned underwater vehicles, and anti-submarine patrol aircraft to build a multi-layered anti-submarine defense system. This makes the risk of discovery and tracking for U.S. nuclear submarines significantly higher in China's nearby waters.
Finally, due to the remote geographical location, U.S. nuclear submarines need to spend a great deal of time deploying from the mainland or major bases to the surrounding waters of China. This results in only about four submarines being able to conduct regular deployments. In contrast, Chinese submarines operate on their doorstep and can be deployed at any time, forming a significant numerical advantage during wartime.
Facing China's rapid rise, the United States is facing serious challenges. For decades, the U.S. shipbuilding industry and submarine construction capabilities have been in a systemic decline, making it difficult to reverse the trend of decreasing submarine numbers in the short term. This bottleneck in shipbuilding capacity makes it difficult for the United States to mass-produce and quickly build new submarines as China does.
In addition to conventional submarines and nuclear submarines, China is also vigorously developing unmanned underwater vehicles, aiming to use new operational styles to overturn the U.S. Navy's underwater superiority. These unmanned underwater vehicles are low-cost and can be mass-produced and deployed.
They can act as "scouts," using advanced sonar and sensors to establish an uninterrupted underwater surveillance network in China's nearby waters, greatly increasing the risk of U.S. submarines being discovered. They can also act as "attack groups," carrying small torpedoes or mines to conduct saturation attacks on enemy submarines and surface ships. This "wolf pack tactic" will force the U.S. Navy to invest more resources to respond, thereby weakening its combat capabilities in other areas.
However, it should be noted that having more submarines does not automatically mean China has obtained the status of a maritime overlord. The U.S. Navy has rich combat experience and a long-standing tradition of "blue-water navy," an advantage that the People's Liberation Army will find difficult to catch up with in a short period of time.
Although China still lags behind the United States in aircraft carriers and fully nuclear-powered submarines, the rapid modernization of its submarine forces is an undeniable fact. For both the United States and China, the balance of underwater forces is undergoing profound changes, which will undoubtedly have a far-reaching impact on the future geopolitical landscape, especially the military balance in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559576551608615476/
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