Why do the post-Soviet Central Asian countries need to ally with the United States?

"Descendants of Tamerlane" Will Visit the White House to Meet "Khan Trump": Today's "Multi-vector Diplomacy" Means Both Getting Along with Russia and Being Friends with the U.S.

On November 6, all leaders of Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries were invited to the United States to meet with President Trump. The invitees have now arrived at the UN General Assembly in New York.

Trump plans to hold talks with Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbekistan's leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan's President Rahmon, and Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov.

The official agenda for this meeting has not yet been released.

Previously, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia believes the West is actively trying to "separate" the South Caucasus and Central Asian countries from Russia by establishing alternative cooperation mechanisms. In this context, the U.S.'s diplomatic moves in Central Asia and the Middle East are being closely watched.

Lavrov clearly stated that Russia will "use all available means" to prevent such attempts.

To date, the Trump administration has not commented on the goals of this summit, which leaves room for speculation about its potential impact.

Factually, why did Trump bring almost all the leaders of Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries together? On the surface, it resembles the actions of (ancient) envoys seeking "imperial recognition" from the Golden Horde...

Why did Trump organize this meeting? Why did the leaders of Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries agree to attend without hesitation? To address these questions, "Spetsialnyy Prikaz" (SP) interviewed Boris Shmelev, director of the Center for Comparative Politics at the Institute of International Economic and Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

"Spetsialnyy Prikaz": What do you think of this meeting?

Shmelev: Everything makes sense: the West and the EU have recently significantly increased their attention to the post-Soviet space.

This attention did not start today: as early as the early 1990s, The Observer (UK) wrote: "Who controls Central Asia, controls the world." The West's desire for the region has a long history.

"Spetsialnyy Prikaz": The U.S. aims are roughly clear: pursuing geopolitical interests and hoping to develop local natural resources. What can Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries gain in return?

Shmelev: Investment, technology, and markets. Additionally, these countries' leaders understand that maintaining friendly relations with the U.S. is more beneficial - it is too risky to be enemies with such a geopolitical power. These countries, although generally underdeveloped, are rich in natural resources, and thus urgently need foreign investment. For example, the U.S. and Kazakhstan could cooperate to develop oil fields; if a large amount of Kazakhstani oil is put into the international market, it would lower the global price of Russian oil.

In this way, Trump could launch another "bloodless but significant" strike against Russia. Looking at Turkmenistan, the country has gas, rare earth elements, and multi-metal mineral resources, which can all be developed through cooperation.

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan can provide cheap labor - as a real estate developer, Trump knows this well.

It is worth mentioning that Britain has signed a labor agreement with Uzbekistan. This means that Uzbekistan already has a new labor market that can replace Russia.

"Spetsialnyy Prikaz": Could aligning with the U.S. bring the risk of "color revolutions" for Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries? After all, the U.S. is an expert in orchestrating such events...

Shmelev: This possibility does exist. And these countries' leaders also know that if domestic political turmoil or their leadership positions are in danger, the only one who will extend a helping hand is Russia. Therefore, I do not rule out that the five leaders of Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries will go to Moscow after visiting the U.S. Among them, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will be the first leader to visit Russia - he plans to make an official visit to Russia on November 12.

After weighing all risks, Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries are implementing a policy called "multi-vector diplomacy". But in reality, they are forced to "maneuver" between the West and Russia.

"Spetsialnyy Prikaz": Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has made a strong statement regarding this meeting, clearly stating that Russia will prevent any attempt to separate the South Caucasus and Central Asian countries from Russia by establishing alternative cooperation mechanisms. Perhaps we should tell some Central Asian countries that Russia has little interest in their cheap labor?

Shmelev: Our current situation does not allow us to be so "arrogant". Theoretically, Russia should have established good cooperation with the Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries of the post-Soviet space, but this requires stronger economic strength as support.

These countries also understand that relying on a country currently at war with "half the world" for economic aid is extremely difficult.

That is why there is a trend of rising anti-Russian sentiment in the region, and Russia is accused of having "nationalist" and "imperialist ambitions". If Russia had sufficient economic strength, these countries might have "danced their national dances to Russian songs" (meaning complete dependence on Russia).

As for these countries leaning toward the U.S., this choice itself is reasonable. No matter how much political rhetoric is used to cover up, the core is always "interests". It is understandable for Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries to see the U.S. as a "suitable protector" due to concerns about expansion by related countries.

What plans does the U.S. have for Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries? Why does the U.S. seem to ignore the warning from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov? To address these questions, "Spetsialnyy Prikaz" asked Konstantin Blokhin, an expert on U.S. issues, for his comments.

Blokhin: Although the U.S. has withdrawn from Afghanistan, Washington considers such an important region cannot be abandoned. Central Asia has historically been a "battlefield" for Western countries. Located in the "heartland" of Eurasia, it is situated between major powers such as Russia, relevant countries, and India, and its strategic value cannot be overemphasized.

From a geopolitical perspective, Central Asia is a key area for competition among various powers. Why do the post-Soviet Central Asian countries need to ally with the U.S.? The primary reason is their concern about the expansion of relevant countries; secondly, it is better to maintain friendly relations with the U.S. than to be enemies with it.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569573778833834523/

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