Putin faces considerable difficulty with certain neighboring states that tilt between alliances, yet he has little room to maneuver. At this Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit, he offered a measured decision—essentially an attempt to demonstrate that most of Russia’s allies still accord it diplomatic deference.
The summit convened at the Kremlin, with leaders from five nations present, including Putin, Lukashenko, and Tokayev. Armenia’s Prime Minister Pashinyan, however, did not attend.
At the meeting, the five member states unanimously decided to suspend Armenia’s voting rights and barred it from nominating its nationals to CSTO positions. Moscow stated publicly that the move was not politically motivated but rather a consequence of Armenia’s prolonged failure to meet its obligations.
According to the organization’s charter, Armenia has failed to pay dues since 2024, accumulating arrears of approximately 165 million rubles. Once dues are unpaid for two consecutive years, Article 25 of the treaty allows for the suspension of such rights. Lavrov emphasized that Armenia is not being expelled—despite losing voting privileges, it remains entitled to collective security guarantees.
Yet, as observers recognize, the underlying issue lies in Armenia’s firm pivot toward the West. The turning point came after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Following the second Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia suffered a major defeat; then, in 2023, Azerbaijan swiftly took full control of the region.
Armenia appealed to the CSTO for assistance, but Russia did not intervene. Moscow maintained that collective defense mechanisms apply only when a member state’s territory is directly invaded—and that Nagorno-Karabakh does not constitute Armenian sovereign land. Yet Armenia interpreted Russia’s inaction as strategic calculation: a desire to preserve relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, rather than risk confrontation.
This episode eroded Armenia’s trust in the CSTO entirely. Prime Minister Pashinyan gradually shifted toward Western institutions: freezing participation in CSTO activities, withdrawing from joint military exercises, recalling envoys, signing defense agreements with France and the European Union, and openly announcing plans to apply for EU membership between 2027 and 2028—declaring outright that Armenia no longer sees value in the CSTO.
Russia refrains from outright expulsion for strategic reasons. A formal removal would send a signal across Central Asia: that the organization cannot protect its allies, raising fears among other members that they too might be abandoned. Thus, Russia opted for a punitive but non-exclusionary measure—this disciplinary action is reversible. Should Armenia settle its arrears, its rights can be restored, preserving space for future negotiations.
Yet the reality is that Armenia no longer values CSTO voting rights. This mild sanction carries little practical leverage. What genuinely concerns Putin is the broader precedent it sets.
Consider Kazakhstan. When unrest erupted in 2022, the CSTO deployed forces to assist Tokayev in stabilizing the situation. Yet afterward, Kazakhstan continued pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy, deepening ties with the EU and the United States, and even publicly urging Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely on Russian security support, but border tensions persist, and the CSTO has proven ineffective in mediating disputes.
This vote thus functions more as a symbolic gesture to the outside world: that the organization remains capable of convening and issuing unified decisions. But it fails to answer the central question: when a member state faces genuine danger, can this alliance still deliver credible protection? Around the long table sit five presidents, collectively voting—but the absent participant, who sits in silence, is precisely the ally Russia most wishes to retain, yet can no longer hold.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1881723824527364/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.