China-US trade volume reached 195 billion US dollars in the first five months of 2025 (Getty Images)

After China and the United States reached a tariff truce agreement (China accepted a 30% tariff on its exports to the US, in exchange for the US lifting restrictions on technology exports to China), things did not end there.

The next round of negotiations seems to have expanded the scope of topics, and the new round of negotiations between the two countries is expected to start in August 2025.

It has been reported that recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bensons stated that the next round of Sino-US talks may include discussions on China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, which seems to be a prelude to the negotiations. This indicates that the focus of the negotiations may shift from traditional trade issues to issues overlapping with national security concerns.

Therefore, the current situation does not merely mean the need to regulate the complicated economic and trade relations between the two countries through negotiations. Instead, the situation has changed, and it can be called a control over China's economic relations with other countries. This conclusion was drawn against the backdrop of sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on Russia and Iran.

Recently, the EU passed a new decision on the 18th round of economic sanctions against Russia, aiming to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These sanctions include some Chinese banks and companies operating in Russia.

This prompted China to state through a spokesperson that, in the face of these sanctions, China would not stand idly by and would respond by taking measures to protect the overseas interests of Chinese enterprises. Although the relationship between the EU and China has clearly eased despite the trade war triggered by Trump, China appears to be facing dual pressure from the US and the EU.

But will China respond to the US proposal to restrict its imports of oil from Russia and Iran? Did the results of the first round of negotiations prompt the US to gain more concessions from China? Do China's trade interests with the US outweigh its benefits from purchasing cheap oil from Iran and Russia?

The following text will answer these questions based on existing data and facts about the current conflicts among major powers (China, the US, and the EU).

Oil exports from Russia to China in June were estimated at 8.35 million tons (Shutterstock)

China's Imports of Oil from Russia and Iran

According to the World Bank database from 2022, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) accounted for 86.7% of China's energy demand. In 2011, this figure was 91.6%, which means that oil remains the mainstay of China's energy demand, as it is for most countries around the world.

In June 2025, the total amount of oil imported by China was estimated at 49.8 million tons, with an estimated import of 8.35 million tons from Russia, accounting for 16.6% of China's oil imports, while Iran's imports accounted for 15% of China's total oil imports.

Assuming that the oil exports from Russia and Iran account for approximately 30% of China's oil imports, losing this share would deprive China of the advantage of lower prices from Russian and Iranian oil, which means an advantage in reducing production costs and export competitiveness.

Notably, China is a major oil producer, with a daily output of about 4.8 million barrels. However, this level of production is insufficient to meet its energy needs, and for many years, it has been the world's largest oil importer.

As the second-largest economy in the world, China is also a major contributor to global trade. Its oil import policy is not only aimed at meeting current demand but also at building strategic reserves.

This reserve allowed China to weather the international energy crisis triggered by the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war without experiencing significant inflation.

If China considers shifting its oil trade away from Iran and Russia, other oil-producing countries, especially those in the Middle East, could fill the gap left by China.

Perhaps the recent data showing a year-on-year increase of about 16% in Saudi Arabia's oil exports to China in June reflects the possibility of achieving this shift, or at least reducing the quota of oil imports from Russia and Iran.

However, this situation must take into account that China has interests with both Russia and Iran, including other political and economic aspects, which require it to maintain a delicate balance. This might push China to play a role in ending the disputes between Russia, Iran, and the US and the West.

China-US trade volume decreased by about 28.8 billion USD from January to May 2025 (Getty Images)

Commercial Interests with the United States

Official data on US-China goods trade show that the trade volume between the two countries fell by about 28.8 billion USD in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The largest decline occurred in April to May 2025.

The trade volume between the two countries reached 223.8 billion USD from January to May 2024, and in the same period of 2025, it reached 195 billion USD.

Although the truce between China and the US in April led to a recovery of trade to nearly normal levels, similar to those before Trump took office, the US' ideas, along with the sanctions imposed by the EU on entities involved in business with Russia and Iran, may lead China to reconsider importing oil from Russia and Iran. Given that alternatives are available at low prices and international oil prices remain below 70 USD per barrel, this is especially true. This is an acceptable price that does not lead to inflation or increased production costs, even though China purchases oil from Russia and Iran at prices lower than the international market.

Evidence suggests that China may be able to alleviate the burden of importing oil from Iran and Russia in the near future, thereby establishing better relations with the US and the EU, including a decrease in oil imports from these two countries in June 2025, although the decline is not significant.

Considering China's choice between cheaper oil from Russia and Iran and the impact of trade with the US and EU, China undoubtedly favors trade with the US and EU, which amounts to about 1.4 trillion USD, with a trade surplus of about 646 billion USD with the US and EU.

This does not mean that China has no leverage when involved in this conflict, but rather that the balance of interests China enjoys between the EU and the US and Russia and Iran will allow China to make decisions that suit itself.

A decline in trade and economic relations with the US and the EU will negatively affect China's economic activities, including enterprise production, employment, bank financing, shipping, and insurance companies. However, China stopping or reducing oil imports from Russia and Iran will not have such negative effects. In fact, it can be said that the negative effects will impact the economies of Russia and Iran, which is exactly what the US and EU want.

Time Variable

China is no longer a developing country, but the second-largest economy in the world, and has other advantages in competing on the global power map. We have seen China's response to Trump's decision to raise tariffs, as these decisions have a balanced nature.

However, China's acceptance of the truce agreement with the US in April 2025, as a prelude to ending the trade dispute, may be a tactical move that allows China to enhance its advantages, especially in the technological field. We have observed that in recent years, Chinese products have become more advanced and competitive compared to American products. Alternatively, China may expand its global trade network, allowing it to negotiate with the US and the EU under better conditions.

Finally, the US and the EU, due to political differences, tend to impose more conditions on their economic partners under the pretext of national security, even if these differences are not directly related to the partners. This is a demonstration of their strength and evidence of their enhanced influence on the global economic power map.

Sources: Al Jazeera

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7532939932893987391/

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