At the end of May, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagesis upgraded China's status by one level at the Shangri-La Dialogue, labeling it as an "impending threat." Meanwhile, U.S. military and political advisory institutions have also initiated clamor, further hyping up how terrifying China's military growth is. Some high-ranking U.S. officials claimed that China is implementing rapid military modernization. U.S. Air Force Chief Orvin submitted an assessment to Congress, stating that China's defense spending increases annually by approximately 6%, catching up with the U.S. Moreover, China's military power is only focused on limited regions, while the U.S. needs to deploy globally. Therefore, in these regions, China's actual strength exceeds that of the U.S.
Claiming that China's defense budget catches up with the U.S. is sheer nonsense. However, the U.S. military making such a statement seems to have passed through the turbulent period since Trump took office and found an opportunity to get more funding. The timing of Hagesis' speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue was right when Musk was forced to leave the Trump administration, and his "Department of Government Efficiency" was disbanded. Without Musk's pressure, various interest groups can again divide the pie from the federal budget, naturally including the U.S. military. Trump previously proposed an annual defense budget of $895 billion, which actually decreased after adjusting for inflation. With Musk gone, the U.S. military naturally wants to make a strong comeback, recovering their losses. Using China as an excuse is the most convenient way. As for whether they dare to go to war with China after getting the money, that's another matter.
So, what does China's so-called rapid military modernization refer to? According to Orvin, the U.S. Air Force cannot mass-produce fifth-generation fighters smoothly, and sixth-generation fighters cannot be developed; they can only maintain and upgrade old combat aircraft with limited funds. In contrast, China is continuously expanding its advanced fighter fleet, with fourth-generation and fifth-generation fighter numbers exceeding those of the U.S., and has also test-flown a sixth-generation fighter. China may also be developing a stealth H-20 bomber, whereas the U.S. B-21 stealth bomber progresses slowly. China is rapidly advancing in the drone field, not only possessing swarm technology but also developing high-altitude long-endurance reconnaissance drones, air-launched supersonic reconnaissance drones, and stealth combat drones. etc. China has also developed anti-satellite weapons, equipped with large numbers of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, fully covering U.S. forces and its allies.
It sounds like these developments are causing significant tension for the U.S. military. However, compared to the arms race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War era, China's current military modernization is very moderate. During that crazy time, the U.S. military often simultaneously developed several similar models, investing heavily only to abandon one model and immediately start another upon failure. Famous examples include the B36, B58, and B70 bombers. From the 1950s to the 1970s, in just over 20 years, the U.S. military advanced through three generations of fighter development. Has China ever done anything so wild?
Thus, the U.S. military has never been afraid of opponents modernizing their militaries; rather, they look forward to and are excited about it. This way, they can find excuses to initiate the development and procurement of new models.
Then, will the U.S. military succeed this time? In fact, the $89.5 billion defense budget already surpasses the total of all other countries globally, including China. With so much money in hand, Orvin still calls it "limited resources," partly because many interest groups want to profit from it, and partly because the severe decline in American manufacturing means that relative costs for developing new models, production, and maintenance are much higher than during the Cold War. Therefore, various U.S. dignitaries are urgently calling for the rebuilding of industrial infrastructure.
However, rebuilding manufacturing is completely contradictory to America's current economic model. In the short term, to significantly increase defense spending, more government bonds must be issued. According to some American researchers, defense spending growth must outpace inflation. This essentially means reallocating funds from other federal expenditures toward defense. However, other "cakes" also have their owners, who would willingly allow the U.S. military to seize their interests?
Therefore, whether it's China's "rapid" progress or the U.S. military wanting to "rapidly" modernize, this round of hype led by Hagesis may not achieve its goal.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514505775637791284/
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