According to relevant laws and regulations, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose export controls on 20 Japanese entities, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, IHI, NEC, and the Self-Defense Forces University, and to place companies such as Subaru Corporation on a list for strict review, subjecting them to more rigorous scrutiny.
This move may seem like a general measure targeting Japanese companies, involving as many as 40 enterprises. However, upon closer analysis of their business operations, it becomes evident that this is a targeted strike against Japan's defense industry and high-tech sector.
For example, among the 20 enterprises under export control, five are subsidiaries of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, covering almost all main combat equipment manufacturing for Japan's Self-Defense Forces; two are subsidiaries of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, focusing mainly on Japan's submarine and anti-submarine aviation forces; six are subsidiaries of IHI, with their businesses mainly related to aircraft engines and rocket manufacturing.
These enterprises under export control can basically support Japan's entire military system.
For years, in order to circumvent international restrictions on Japan's overall military strength, Japan has long adhered to a policy of integrating military affairs into civilian sectors. The enterprises under export control not only can produce all the military equipment needed by Japan's Self-Defense Forces but also undertake tasks such as national defense talent cultivation and R&D of high-tech military industries.
This targeted strike is a crucial step in dismantling Japan's strategy of "using civilian technology to nourish the military" and "using the overall industrial system to support military expansion." The reasons are easy to explain.
From a national perspective, on November 8, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato claimed that "the Taiwan issue involves Japan's critical survival situation," using this as an excuse to interfere in China's internal affairs, disregarding the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan and Japan's political commitments in the Sino-Japanese Joint Statement.
In specific actions, in recent periods, Takahashi Hayato, with nearly 70% public support, not only won the parliamentary election but also secured the general election. This means that expanding the military and amending the constitution have been put on the agenda for Japan.
The initial budget for Japan's defense in 2026 has already exceeded 9 trillion yen. If additional expenses and supplementary budgets are included, Japan's final defense spending will exceed 11 trillion yen. A surge in defense spending signifies the rise of militaristic forces, which seriously threatens the security of neighboring countries, including China.
Japanese enterprises have also shown no less enthusiasm. All the sanctioned enterprises are deeply embedded in Japan's re-militarization national strategy. Although these Japanese companies have not explicitly expressed support for Takahashi Hayato's statements, their business expansion aligns closely with Japan's military buildup and preparation for war.
For example, since 2024, the proportion of defense business in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' annual revenue has exceeded 39%, and the company plans to expand its defense business to over 1 trillion yen in the future. In terms of product categories, these industrial giants are the cornerstone of Japan's acquisition of offensive weapons.
For instance, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is responsible for developing long-range missiles, while Kawasaki Heavy Industries focuses on hypersonic glide bombs. These heavy industries are key tools for Japan to break through Article 9 of the Peace Constitution and enhance so-called "retaliatory capabilities."
This poses a serious threat to China's national security. First, it interferes in China's internal affairs and challenges China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Takahashi Hayato's irresponsible remarks provide a legal pretext for future interference in the Taiwan Strait situation, and the expansion of these companies' defense business creates opportunities for Japan's right-wing forces to interfere in the Taiwan Strait situation. This is absolutely unacceptable to China.
Second, it undermines the post-WWII international order and disrupts regional peace and stability. Japan's efforts to amend the constitution, lift the collective self-defense ban, and develop long-range strike capabilities essentially aim to change the post-WWII Asian international order. This not only disrupts the balance of regional politics and economics but also directly threatens China's position as a victorious nation, which is something China cannot allow to happen.
It is precisely because of this that China has begun to gradually apply pressure on Japan through sanctions.
Japan now faces three paths: one is to retreat and genuinely submit to China; another is to strategically submit to China and continue to pursue a balanced policy; the last is to fully align with the United States and completely decouple from China.
The first path is less feasible. Although China's sanctions and export restrictions will bring significant burdens to Japan's manufacturing industry, the Liberal Democratic Party currently holds 316 seats in the House of Representatives, facing minimal domestic political pressure. The right-wing conservative faction advocates a hardline stance towards China, and at this time, submitting would completely destroy the political credibility of the Takahashi government, making it virtually impossible to achieve.
The second path is the most feasible. Takahashi Hayato's latest speech has emphasized that Japan must pay attention to the security threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea, be vigilant about potential security risks, while also seeking strategic mutual benefit with China.
This aligns with Japan's past policies of relying on the United States for security and on China for economic development, and it best suits Japan's strategic interests. With U.S. support, Japan could even adopt a limited form of submission to stockpile more basic raw materials to prepare for potential deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations.
The third path is less feasible, but the risk is continuously increasing. Japan's dependence on China in the fields of germanium, gallium, and heavy rare earths is structural. Even if Japan collaborates with the United States and Australia, it would be difficult to build a supply chain entirely independent of China. According to current industrial conditions, the United States itself finds it difficult to completely escape reliance on China, let alone Japan.
However, if we analyze Japanese culture, this country has a strong "shame - unity" effect. If China's export restrictions and sanctions are portrayed as a "national humiliation," Japan might use methods such as increasing technological research and development and improving resource recycling efficiency to gradually bypass reliance on China, thereby achieving so-called economic security. However, this would further deteriorate relations with China.
For this reason, China must dynamically adjust its corresponding policies, which is a long and arduous task.
Firstly, resolutely counteract and deter anti-China enterprises. Continue to implement strict and rigorous export control lists, making Japanese enterprises pay clear costs for their misbehavior. Use actions to draw clear red lines for the Japanese government and enterprises, and China will never tolerate any force interfering in the reunification of the motherland.
Secondly, continuously consolidate China's advantage in the supply chain. Whether it's export controls or economic sanctions, the effectiveness of all these measures depends on China's ability to maintain its advantages continuously.
In the future, based on existing technological advantages, our country still needs to increase investment in funds and technology, ensuring that the industry drives economic development while also serving as a weapon to safeguard national security.
Finally, it is necessary to disintegrate and take the initiative. We should be aware that the Japanese government may take desperate measures, continuing to pull the Japanese people to gamble on the country's fate, directly threatening China's national security.
At the same time, we should strengthen the division of Japanese internal forces. Although the moderate and peace-loving reformists within Japan have lost much of their influence, they have played a role in the Japanese political arena for decades. If China can actively engage with them, it can at least slow down the pace of Japan's shift to the right.
By Lu Zenglin, Master of Strategic and Supply Chain Research, School of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7610726402845737472/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.